EU milk deliveries are expected to grow by 1.4% in 2018 with a slowdown in milk collection growth projected to take place only in 2019 mainly due to lower prices, according to the latest European Commission outlook on the dairy sector.

While milk deliveries are to grow this year by 1.4%, production is only forecast to grow by 0.5% in 2019.

In 2017, milk collections across EU member states increased by 1.8% compared to 2016. This was as a result of lower feed costs, higher milk prices and good forage quality and quantity.

The reason for the slowdown in production in 2019 is due to forecast lower milk prices, according to the Commission.

The growth profile is expected to vary strongly during the year given current weather conditions across the EU.

In January 2018, EU milk collection increased by around 4% compared to 2017. However, colder temperatures in February and March have delayed turnout and grazings, which the Commission has said will contribute to slow down the growth in milk collections.

In the first quarter of 2018, growth is expected to increase 3% year-on-year, with growth expected to slow down as the year goes on.

Cow numbers

Meanwhile, Eurostat’s December livestock survey found that dairy cow numbers in the EU fell almost 1% on December 2016 – the first significant drop since 2012.

This has brought the EU dairy herd back to its 2011 level with dairy cow cullings in the Netherlands the main driver of the drop in numbers.

Dairy cow numbers are expected to continue to decline in 2018 and 2019 but at a slower pace.

Read more

Dairy markets: butter markets rising again as stocks remain tight

Fonterra's February milk collections down

March milk supply plummets in the east