This is the forecast in the EU Agricultural Outlook to 2030 published by the European Commission this Monday.

The study assumes current CAP payments will remain the same and states that the income derived from the land, investments and labour put in by EU farmers and their employees will fall by 20% in real terms over the next 13 years.

The value of milk production will increase by almost 4 % annually, while the value of sheep and bovine production will slightly decrease

On the one hand, the value of crops is expected to increase as volumes and prices grow. “As for animal products, the value of milk production will increase by almost 4% annually, while the value of sheep and bovine production will slightly decrease over the outlook period,” the report reads.

Overall, farm output is expected to grow by 2% per year on average. However, this growth will be faster in eastern Europe than in older member states such as Ireland.

Meanwhile, costs will rise faster – on average by 2.5% each year. Energy, fertiliser and professional services will become more expensive. Feed costs will increase too, but not as fast. Investments in precision technologies and environmental compliance will rise too.

Fewer farmers

The EU expects the agricultural workforce to shrink by 28% to reach 6.6m people in agriculture by 2030 (-3.2 % per year). This will be part of a wider continued migration from rural areas to cities, which “is often due to sub-optimal infrastructures in rural areas and limited access to public transport”.

As there will be fewer farmers to share a smaller income, each is expected to maintain their individual share. The EU expects agricultural income per labour unit to grow by just over 10% in real terms. New member states will catch up on western Europe, where real income growth per person is forecast to be just 8.3% between now and 2030.

Income gap between dairy and other sectors widens

Number of farmers continues to decline

Listen: Commission ‘not shirking responsibility’ with more national CAP – Hogan

Farm income to stagnate over the next decade – EU

Farmers' labour and investments will continue to return diminishing income and only a reduction in the number of people working in agriculture will allow each of them to maintain living standards.