The concentration of urea production to a few global players is creating more and more volatility in fertiliser prices, according to Origin Enterprises chief executive Tom O’Mahony.

Delivering the keynote speech at the 2017 Nuffield Ireland conference, O’Mahony said that consolidation of urea production capacity was the greatest risk to global fertiliser markets.

“I’ve lost the confidence in our ability to predict where fertiliser prices will go. I don’t know where prices are headed next year,” said O’Mahony.

The Origin chief acknowledged that EU tariffs on fertiliser imports to prevent dumping was a real issue, but he believes the tariff issue will be resolved in time.

During his keynote address, O’Mahony reiterated his belief that UK farming will see significant restructuring post Brexit.

However, he said the biggest unknown right now for UK farmers is the structural health of sterling and where it will go in the years to come after Brexit.

He added that Origin is highly exposed to the UK market in terms of sales and profits. But he said that UK investors are very supportive of the business in the UK, because they see the disruption created in agriculture by Brexit as a positive for Origin.

Yara raises nitrogen fertiliser prices again

Origin boss sees structural change in UK farming after Brexit

Fewer global players driving volatility in fertiliser prices

Fewer global players are having more of an impact on prices, the Nuffield Ireland conference was told.