Politicians at Stormont have one last opportunity to amend the NI Executive’s climate change bill before it becomes law.

The “further consideration stage” for the bill is expected to take place the week after next, which means a deadline for submitting proposed amendments is likely to be the middle of next week.

When the bill was last debated, MLAs voted to change the headline target from an at least 82% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, to net zero by the same date.

Analysis by consultancy firm KPMG found a net zero target would require an 86% cut in cattle and sheep numbers, and 98% of beef and sheep farms in less-favoured areas would go out of business.

Sources indicate that an amendment which separates biogenic methane from the net zero emissions target could be tabled

Farmers are being urged to contact their local MLAs to press them to support meaningful amendments that will protect the NI agriculture industry.

Sources indicate that an amendment which separates biogenic methane from the net zero emissions target could be tabled.

This would mean natural methane emissions from ruminant livestock would not need to reach zero by 2050.

It comes as 33 world leading climate scientists published a paper in the prestigious research journal Nature, urging policymakers to assess different greenhouse gases separately when setting emissions targets.

The logic for splitting emissions targets surrounds the length of time that different greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere

The experts state that there is a “high level of agreement on the underlying science of how different greenhouse gases affect global temperature”.

The logic for splitting emissions targets surrounds the length of time that different greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere.

Methane breaks down in less than 20 years, but carbon dioxide, which comes from burning fossil fuels, accumulates and has a warming effect for centuries. It means a small cut in biogenic methane has the same effect on global temperatures as a much bigger reduction in carbon dioxide.

IPPC analysis

The climate scientists point to last year’s sixth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

It states that the current system used for comparing different greenhouse gases “overstates the effect of constant methane emissions on global surface temperature by a factor of three to four”.

However, the accounting system, known as GWP100, understates the effect of rising methane emissions by a factor four to five times.

Crucially, this means that methane emissions from the likes of the NI agriculture sector do not need to reach net zero for the industry to have no warming effect on global temperatures.

“This does not have to affect any existing or planned NDCs (national targets) or long-term net zero strategies communicated using [GWP100],” the scientists state in Nature.

The special economic and social role of agriculture and the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane, as described by the IPCC, will be fully recognised in plans

An amendment on methane at Stormont would also be in line with the Republic of Ireland, where the issue was addressed in the latest Programme for Government between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party.

“The special economic and social role of agriculture and the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane, as described by the IPCC, will be fully recognised in plans to achieve these targets,” the Irish Government document reads.

Green Party bill stays in the background

A separate climate change bill, which was brought forward by Green Party MLA Clare Bailey, is still in the legislative process at Stormont. The private member’s bill has a headline target for NI to reach net zero by 2045.

In a letter sent to all MLAs on Tuesday, Assembly Speaker Alex Maskey said he expected all private member’s bills that passed committee stage by the end of February could complete their passage through the Assembly before the next election.

Political appetite

That includes the Green Party’s climate bill, but there is likely to be little political appetite to progress it if the Executive’s climate change bill makes it over the line first.

Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots still has the option to drop the Executive’s climate bill altogether.

However, that could lead to a renewed rush to get the Green Party’s bill passed before the Assembly is dissolved at the end of March.