Future growth in cow numbers could offset efficiency – Teagasc

Discussion of climate change and the role of agriculture dominated the Teagasc Sectoral Roadmaps 2027 webinar on Tuesday.

While speakers were largely positive about the development and growth of sectors, they sounded a note of caution when it came to climate change.

They were also asked a number of questions about the growth of protein crops and tillage to support the rise in veganism – a market they admitted had not yet been tapped into from an Irish perspective.

Teagasc director Prof Gerry Boyle said that while the dairy sector was set to be the most profitable sector over the next decade, it would also be the most challenged in terms of reducing emissions.

His concerns were shared by Teagasc economist Kevin Hanrahan, who pointed out that while the number of beef cattle in the country was reducing, the number of dairy cattle was still predicted to rise, meaning the overall number of cattle was likely to remain the same.

He said it was “critical” that farmers utilised the emissions-reducing options in the Teagasc MACC plan.

“The growth in cow numbers may more than offset the gains in efficiencies,” he warned.

Prof Boyle said Teagasc planned to reduce chemical N on all its research farms from 250kg/ha to 150kg/ha and utilise more clover in an effort to help reduce emissions from its dairy herds and that it hoped farmers would follow suit once they saw the results.

Other sectors were not under quite the same microscope when it came to climate change, with Teagasc pushing for 10 ewes/ha on sheep farms and a plan to increase crops going into premium markets by 50%.

Less nitrogen, more grass and more profit

The Teagasc dairy roadmap, officially launched at the National Dairy Conference, is almost identical to that presented at the 2019 National Dairy Conference.

The main changes to the previous roadmap (launched in 2015) are that the target for nitrogen usage has dropped from 250kg N/ha to 170kg N/ha and the target for grass utilisation has dropped from 10.9t DM/ha to 8.9t DM/ha. This is still a 14% increase in the current level of grass utilisation and is forecasted despite an 8% reduction in nitrogen fertiliser usage from the current average of 184kg N/ha.

Unsurprisingly, the greater use of clover, low-emission slurry spreading and protected urea are heavily promoted as the drivers of change, along with improved grassland management. If all the measures are adopted, Teagasc is forecasting profits on dairy farms to more than double from €519/ha to €1,302/ha in 2027 at a base milk price of 29c/l.

The report predicts dairy cow numbers will reach 1.65m cows by 2027, with milk output of 9.5bn litres.

- Aidan Brennan

Fewer suckler cows in 2027

Teagasc has predicted a further decline in suckler cow numbers up to 2027, in its forecast of what the beef sector will look like in seven years’ time.

However, it does see an increase in the number of farms rearing and finishing calves from the dairy herd.

For these dairy calf to beef enterprises to be successful, Teagasc points to better integration of dairy farm and beef farm decision-making on genetics used on the dairy herd.

Growing more grass and adopting technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also form a central cog in the report.

In a low-stocked situation, Teagasc has calculated the cost of producing a kg of beef from the suckler herd at €3.09, while beef from the dairy herd costs €3.39/kg to produce.

On Teagasc suckler demonstration farms, Teagasc claims a net margin/ha of €400 is possible while on its dairy calf to beef demonstration farms a net margin/ha of €501 is possible.

– Adam Woods

Higher lamb output forecast

The sheep roadmap highlights opportunities for the sector, pointing out the EU is only 86% self-sufficient in sheepmeat while Ireland will become the largest net exporter in the EU when the UK leaves the bloc. It is targeting greater output from a stable Irish national flock of 2.57m ewes.

This is primarily through improvements in lowland ewe productivity, with a target of increasing the weaning rate from the current level of 1.39 lambs per ewe to 1.55 lambs by 2027. Along with increasing the stocking rate to nine ewes/ha this will increase lamb carcase output from 223kg/ha to 280kg/ha. There are no changes in chemical nitrogen use forecast, while incorporating clover in swards and better grassland management will underpin output and reduce concentrate input.

With regard to hill sheep, the roadmap states that margins are insufficient to maintain current levels of farming activity. It says the provision of support to hill sheep farmers will be essential to maintaining current levels of production.

– Darren Carty

Crop yield increases to continue

John Spink outlined that Teagasc aims to increase tillage crop yields by 1% per annum, alongside reduced production costs.

The tillage roadmap to 2027 also targets half of the national output to go to premium markets by that date. And new EU obligations will see efforts to reduce reliance on plant protection products with the help of improved genetics and management.

Reduced dependence on plant protection products will help reduce production costs and this will be helped by an increase in the area sown to break crops for premium markets, using more climate resilient varieties.

The main premium markets targeted will be cereals for the drinks industry, food-grade oats, and oilseed rape for the food market.

Spink sees the low greenhouse gas emissions from Irish tillage as being important in supporting Origin Green, with native grain possibly at a premium over international commodity markets.

- Andy Doyle