As we enter the final stages of the 2018 harvest, it seems likely that grain output will be down close to 30% on last year.

Location and soil type have had a big impact on the scale of the intake drop at merchant level, with areas dominated by the combination of spring barley and light land the worst affected.

While the harvest is not yet complete, it seems inevitable output will be around 1.7m tonnes – down from 2.392m tonnes last year (CSO).

Merchants say that individual intakes are down between 20% and 40%. A smaller planted area, reduced yields and increased wholecropping are the major reasons.

Spring barley had the biggest local impact, with anumber of regions reporting average yields below 2t per acre especially early in the harvest.

Yields have picked up considerably since, with less favoured, heavier land frequently giving higher tonnages.

Winter wheat

Winter wheat yields were also quite variable, with a number of areas recording averages of below 3.5t per acre but, again, yields increased as the harvest progressed and heavier land further north frequently exceeded 4t per acre.

Pressure on barley

The greatest supply pressure is on barley. Based on area changes and lower yields, national barley production may be around 350,000t lower than last year. This is leading to strong demand at merchant level in an effort to secure supplies.

Prices in excess of €220/t have been offered for barley off the combine, but these price offers may be weakening slightly.

While no official prices have yet been agreed, many believe that the base green barley price is likely to exceed €195/t.