The next Government is going to look a lot like its predecessor, with Fianna Fáil certain to return to power, and Fine Gael the preferred partner. Between them, they have 86 TDs, only one shy of half the 174 in the largest Dáil ever.
However, the Green Party’s electoral wipeout means a new, smaller partner will be needed. While both the Labour Party and the Social Democrats are in consideration, it’s almost certain there will be a number of independent TDs.
The most likely to be recruited are Michael Lowry, Seán Canney and Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran.
These three were part of the 2016 Fine Gael/independent minority Government supported externally by Fianna Fáil in the ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement.
Others likely to be approached include Dublin bay south TD Barry Heneghan, whose political mentor Finian McGrath was part of that 2016 Government, Marian Harkin and Verona Murphy.
The rural independents, comprising Michael and Danny Healy-Rae, Mattie McGrath and Carol Nolan are less likely to join the Government, or be invited to do so.
Aontú has ruled out joining a government with Fine Gael. Whether Independent Ireland, with four TDs, will be in Government is unclear as yet.
If Fianna Fáil retains the Ceann Comhairle job, its involvement is more likely.
For the two main government parties, the balancing act is between the numerical comfort a wider arrangement brings, with the political comfort of managing a smaller grouping for the next five years.
SHARING OPTIONS: