Ireland’s national energy-related emissions in 2023 were at their lowest level in over 30 years.

In 2023, emissions from the energy sector were 31.4 MtCO2eq, down 8.3% on 2022 levels.

Despite this progress, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland's (SEAI) National Energy Projections report 2024 shows that the pace of these reductions is not sufficient to deliver on Ireland’s legally binding carbon budgets.

The report states that even in scenarios where most of the ambitious targets set out in the latest climate action plan are fully achieved, there are significant projected gaps in meeting our legally binding national and EU obligations.

Missed targets

The SEAI states that multiple targets are set to be missed. Even with full delivery of the climate action plan, it is likely that the energy sector will not keep within its share of Ireland’s national legally binding carbon budget for the first two budget periods.

Ireland could also overshoot its energy efficiency directive 2030 target by approximately 20%, mostly due to growth in energy demand overwhelming the energy efficiency gains from planned and implemented measures.

Ireland is projected to miss its 2030 overall renewable energy share target under the renewable energy directive in all scenarios.

Cost

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has warned that the State could face fines of up to €20bn if its carbon emission targets are not met by 2030. Earlier this month, the Climate Change Advisory Council estimated that the cost of failing to meet targets would be around €8bn.