Can a small stable win the biggest race?

Flat or jumps, it’s become increasingly rare to see small trainers win big races. Sure, that trend was bucked at Cheltenham last month but, even with all the shock results there, Willie Mullins won 10 of the 28 races, more than all of the British trainers combined.

Will it be the same in the Grand National at Aintree next Saturday? Willie Mullins certainly goes there with a strong hand, as does perennial champion owner J.P. McManus.

But at the time of writing, the favourite for the 2025 Grand National is trained in Trim, Co Meath by the little-known Tom Gibney.

A former amateur jockey, Gibney had been training quietly for five years when he won the Irish National in 2012 with outsider Lion Na Bearnai.

That horse tried his luck at Aintree two years later but failed to complete the course.

Although Gibney has typically had between 10 and 15 winners a year since then, he did not enjoy any more big race success until last year.

Any good young horse he produced was inevitably snapped up by wealthy racehorse owners and transferred to more fashionable trainers.

Big race success

Bloodstock agent Anthony Bromley was one of those looking to buy a horse from Gibney a few years ago. Bromley was acting on behalf of leading international racehorse owners Simon Munir and Issac Souede. The deal fell through but Bromley was impressed by Gibney and advised his clients to send the small trainer a horse at some time in future.

They selected one of their French-based horses who had proved hugely disappointing. That was Intense Raffles and Gibney certainly made the most of his opportunity.

He immediately got the grey back to winning ways, winning two minor races before taking aim at the Irish Grand National, a big ask for a horse aged just six, the youngest in the 20-horse field.

Intense Raffles won convincingly and earned Gibney the National Hunt Achievement of the Year Award from Horse Racing Ireland.

Any horse who has previously won the Irish Grand National has a great chance of winning at Aintree the following year. I Am Maximus completed the Fairyhouse-Aintree double over the past two years, emulating Numbersixvalverde (2005-‘06) and Bobbyjo (1998-’99).

This season Intense Raffles has been given a ‘traditional’ Aintree preparation. He had two quiet runs over hurdles before the Grand National weights were finalised. Only then did Gibney give his stable star a spin over fences and the horse showed his true colours, pushing the highly-rated Nick Rockett close in the Bobbyjo Chase.

The two horses will clash again at Aintree but the weights will very much be in favour of Intense Raffles this time.

What a great sporting story it would be if Tom Gibney could win the biggest race of them all. The 34-runner race is due off at 4pm on Saturday.

If it wasn’t for Scottish trainer Lucinda Russell, Irish-trained horses would have won the last eight runnings of the Grand National at Aintree.

Russell, partner of former jockey Peter Scudamore, famously won the great race in 2017 with One for Arthur and again in 2023, with Corach Rambler. Irish horses finished second on both of those occasions.

Apart from those two blips, the famous steeplechase has been utterly dominated by Irish horses in recent years. In 2024, the first four home were Irish-trained and, at the time of writing, seven of the first eight in the betting for the Saturday, 5 April contest are Irish.

As you might expect, Willie Mullins has two of the leading contenders in the shape of last year’s winner I Am Maximus and this season’s Thyestes/Bobbyjo Chase winner Nick Rockett. Both have great chances but I suspect Mullins will be thwarted by Meath trainer Gavin Cromwell, just as he was in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Cromwell looks set to field three of the leading contenders for the £1 million Aintree feature. They are Stumptown, Perceval Legallois and Vanillier.

Stumptown won the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham last month with a little bit in hand and Cromwell says he expects Keith Donoghue will ride the horse again at Aintree. Stumptown is as low as 8/1 for the Grand National.

Vanillier, who finished third in the Cross Country and was unlucky not to finish closer, is due to race off the same mark at Aintree as when he finished second to Corach Rambler in the Grand National two years ago and is a general 10/1 shot. Cromwell said: “He’s off a nice weight and seems in good form. His last two runs have been really good so if he goes I should think he’d have a live chance.”

Serious contender

Perceval Legallois is yet another Cromwell-trained Aintree contender with a serious chance. Unplaced when favourite for both the Galway Plate and Kerry National last year, the horse has been in unbeatable form lately, winning the Paddy Power Chase and a €100,000 handicap hurdle at Leopardstown.

“His stamina is unproven but, on a flat track at Aintree and with his style of running, you would have to be hopeful,” Cromwell said.

I think Perceval Legallois is the one to be on. Expect him to be well back in the early stages, creeping closer from the third last fence before pouncing late.

This horse is owned by J.P. McManus, who will also be represented in the race by last year’s winner I Am Maximus and the unexposed Iroko.

Frank Berry, racing manager for J.P. McManus, says: “Iroko is a bit of a unknown quantity. Oliver [Greenall] and Josh [Guerriero] have been very patient with him and they are very happy with the horse’s preparation. If he takes to Aintree he could run a huge race.”

I Am Maximus is 8lb higher in the ratings than when winning easily a year ago and will carry top weight in the Aintree race. The nine-year-old has only had two outings since his Aintree success, both in Grade 1 races won by Galopin Des Champs, and he never threatened in either contest.

Berry said: “The horse hasn’t sparked in his two runs this season but Willie [Mullins] is very happy with him since his last race. I’m sure Paul Townend will again ride I Am Maximus and I expect Mark Walsh will ride Perceval Legallois.”