I had a huge reaction to the articles on the Food Vision beef and sheep report.

There are some farmers, specifically older farmers, who would definitely consider the reduction or exit scheme.

A number of questions have a risen around the tax implications of offloading a portion of your herd in one tax year and also what would happen a lump sum incentive payment if there was one. Taxing this at a high rate of tax would mean it wouldn’t be as financially attractive.

Other farmers feel that it should be the suckler farmer that stays in business that should be supported.

Many of these farmers who wish to remain in suckling feel frustrated that a retiring farmer would receive an incentive to get out while the farmer that stays in business continues to struggle.

Either way there are a number of angles where the suckler cow is coming under pressure and I have listed a few of the challenges below which suckler farmers are going to meet in the not too distant future.

Policy

The policy is very clear now. It now seems to be deemed acceptable that suckler cows will be sacrificed to allow the dairy herd expand.

Analysis from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) shows a growing dairy herd over the next eight years and to allow the dairy herd grow, suckler cow numbers must reduce.

A farmer with an entitlement value of €537/ha will see €14,000/year wiped off their support payment over the next four years, a loss of just over €56,000 in four years

If we take a look at all the different policies introduced over the last 12 months, it points to a reduction in suckler cows in Ireland over the next 10 years.

We hear a lot of talk about a stable national herd but with the current path of growth that the dairy herd is on, it will mean less sucklers to maintain the national herd at a so called “stable” state.

BPS

The first huge change that will come is the change to the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) in the next 12 months. The system of convergence will see farm support payments slashed on many suckler farms.

Through convergence, high-value entitlements will drop closer to €300/ha over the next five years. This reduction in supports will put huge pressure on beef farms and, in many cases, is a direct income hit where support payments were making up over 100% of farm income.

A farmer with an entitlement value of €537/ha will see €14,000/year wiped off their support payment over the next four years, a loss of just over €56,000 in four years.

On suckler farms, this reduction in payment will see suckler farmers look to alternative enterprises or reduce numbers in a more extensive production system.

Equally, on finishing farms, it will seriously call into question the economics of finishing enterprises.

We know that beef finishers use their BPS support payment to subsidise their finishing enterprise, so with a reduced support going into that farm, it will add further pressure to the system and will see many cease operating.

This will have the knock-on effect of less buyers around the weanling ring and likely lead to a reduction in weanling prices. In both scenarios, it will mean fewer suckler cows.

Organics

There is currently a huge push within the Department of Agriculture to get farmers to convert to organic farming systems. The target is to have 7.5% of Ireland’s utilisable land area farmed in organic production by 2030.

Much of the conversion is being targeted at drystcok farms and there has been huge interest in the past few weeks.

The reduction in other supports and the lure of €300/ha in support payments for five years will see many drystock farms convert to organic and in doing so, reduce stocking rates and reduce suckler cow numbers over the next few years.

ACRES and forestry supports

The ACRES scheme will also see a reduction of stock numbers of drystock farms.

Many of the most popular options and financially lucrative options are where land is taken out of production or severely restricted in production through a prohibition of spreading any organic or chemical fertiliser on areas of the farm over a five-year period.

Increased forestry premiums will also target more marginal land in the next 10 years and lead to reduced suckler numbers.

If we see anaerobic digesters take off around the country, this will put further pressure on grassland, especially in more marginal systems such as suckling, so will likely take more numbers out.

There is no incentive payment mentioned, but one would have to be included to incentivise farmers to participate in the scheme

Food Vision group

Two of the most talked about measures in the Food Vision report have been the exit scheme and reduction scheme.

The voluntary diversification scheme outlines an income forgone figure of €1,080 per suckler cow over a number of years. There is no incentive payment mentioned, but one would have to be included to incentivise farmers to participate in the scheme.

It should be stressed that the scheme is voluntary and it may suit some farmers who are near retirement and just want to ease back.

The scheme may work alongside an organic conversion. The devil will be in the detail here as to what the incentive payment proves to be.

The exit scheme is the more drastic herd culling option. This option would see the total suckler herd culled on the farm.

Stock can still be grazed on the farm, but no breeding animals are allowed on the holding. A more drastic option compared with Measure 8, it may suit older farmers who wish to operate a simpler system of grazing store animals or look at other alternative enterprises such as forestry.

The tax implications are big with this one in that if 20 suckler cows were sold at €2,000/head in one year, does that mean the farmer is taxed on the €40,000 sale or could another five-year arrangement be put in place. No matter the level of uptake, both measures will lead to fewer suckler cows.

Nitrates

You may wonder why nitrates would come into suckler policy given the low stocking rate on many suckler farms.

Changes to nitrates rules will put huge pressure on dairy farmers to either reduce dairy cow numbers or reduce their stocking rates through the renting of extra land. In a lot of cases, this will mean dairy farmers will look to rent more land.

Given the current economics of dairying, they are in a much stronger position to pay higher land rental charges than suckler farmers, so this will essentially mean that a lot of suckler farmers especially in the south of the country will be squeezed out of the land rental market.

We have already started to see this happen in 2022 where farms for rent have rented out at €300/acre to €400/acre such is the pressure on some dairy farms to get extra land.

Unfortunately, no drystock enterprise is able to justify this level of land rent. Again, this will mean fewer suckler cows and could mean a lot less full-time suckler famers in areas where land is of better quality.

Pressure

The full-time suckler farmer, especially those farming on better land in the south and southeast of the country, will come under sustained pressure in the years ahead from all the angles outlined above.

Low margins and reduced supports will force some to look at other enterprises and those farming on high proportions of rented land will succumb to dairy farmer pressure to take on more land to maintain cow numbers.

Personally, in my opinion, based on the current proposals and direction of policy, the future of our world-renowned suckler herd is in real doubt.

A famous Englishman who once visited our shores had a saying “to hell or to Connaught”. A new version of this for the Irish suckler cow might be 'to hell or the hills'.

With a lot less cows around by 2030, organic sucklers will be assigned to the more marginal land grazing contently along the riparian margins and peering out through the trees on occasion. Big, big changes are coming to suckler farming as we know it.