As counting of votes cast on Friday in the 2024 election proceeds at pace, the formation of the next government will be determined by close contests for final seats across the 43 constituencies.

As first count results take place in many counties, it seems that Fianna Fáil is poised to gain the most first preference votes across the country, beating Friday night's exit poll prediction.

However, pundits disagree as to who will gain the most seats and we will have to wait to see how events unfold.

Outgoing Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue is locked in a battle to retain his seat in Donegal.

Tallies put him in fourth place, behind running mate Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher and Sinn Féin pair of outgoing TDs Pearse Doherty - who will be elected on the first count with a massive surplus - and Padraig MacLochlainn.

Four-way battle

McConalogue is in a four-way battle for the last two seats, alongside Redress (Mica) candidate Charles Ward, outgoing independent Thomas Pringle and the third Sinn Féin candidate, who, although well back, will be hopeful of a big transfer from Doherty's surplus.

McConalogue's hopes will rest on a good transfer from the two candidates from coalition partners Fine Gael, who have over 7,000 votes between them, but no hope of retaining a seat as those votes are shared equally.

Big casualties

The big casualties in this election are the Green Party. The party will lose most of its 12 seats, with Malcolm Noonan long odds to hold his seat in Kilkenny, where Fianna Fáil are occupying the top three spots in tallies - and set to gain a seat - with Fine Gael and Sinn Féin both in better shape than Noonan.

Stephen Donnelly looks like being the most high-profile casualty from the government outside of the Green Party, with Simon Harris in line to carry his running mate Edward Timmons, with Fine Gael defector Shay Cullen also in the hunt.

Sinn Féin's Johnny Brady and the Social Democrats' Jennifer Whitmore both seem set to hold their seats.

Fine Gael has performed badly in the four corners of the country. They may end up with no seat in Kerry, Cork south west, Wexford, Cavan-Monaghan or Donegal.

David Maxwell in Cavan-Monaghan is the best hope, with Sinn Féin fighting for a third seat and Fianna Fáil likely to hold two seats, but perhaps seeing a change in personnel.

Potential gains

Independent Ireland, contesting its first general election, will hold its three outgoing seats and is in contention for potential gains in Sligo/Leitrim, Cork north central and Galway west.

It's way too early to predict if they will be potential junior partners in the next government.

Similarly, the Social Democrats look likely to make some gains, mostly in urban seats. Party leader Holly Cairns, who gave birth to a baby girl on polling day, will hold her seat in west Cork.

The Labour Party will add seats to its outgoing tally.

Outgoing Minister of State for agriculture Martin Heydon is set to top the poll in Kildare south, comfortably regaining his seat, but his fellow Minister of State Pippa Hackett has little hope of taking a seat for the Green Party in Offaly.

In neighbouring Laois, farmer Willie Aird looks set to top the poll for Fine Gael, while Brian Stanley, who resigned from Sinn Féin only last month, will hold his seat as an independent.

Sinn Féin's agriculture spokesperson Martin Kenny is well placed to hold his seat, with running mate Chris McManus in the hunt for a second seat for his party in the four-seat Sligo-Leitrim.

Tune in to farmersjournal.ie early on Sunday morning for an update.