Dairy analysts in Britain have questioned whether the UK will be able to hold national milk supply at 14.8 to 15.2bn litres, after a further 5.8% of producers left the industry in the last financial year.

Writing in their annual outlook report for 2025, consultants at the Leicestershire-based Andersons Centre noted that in the period between April 2023 and April 2024 a total of 440 producers exited milk production in Britain, leaving total numbers at 7,130.

However, with farmers already struggling to comply with existing environment-related rules and tighter restrictions coming in future years, the Andersons analysis is that the numbers leaving the sector could accelerate. Potentially, the total number of producers could fall to between 5,000 and 6,000 within the next two years, the outlook report states.

Rules

The tighter rules putting pressure on dairy farms include a requirement that all slurry and digestate stores in England must be covered by 2027.

Meanwhile in Wales, the entire country was declared a nitrate vulnerable zone in 2021, with associated rules being introduced over a transition period. From 1 August 2024, farmers in Wales must have five months slurry storage in place, are not allowed to spread fertiliser or slurry during a closed period and must restrict nutrient applications to crop limits.

“Many Welsh dairy businesses are finding that they are now ‘overstocked’ according to the regulations,” states the Andersons analysis.

Positive

Despite the continual drop in producer numbers, total UK milk supply has remained remarkably consistent since the mid-1990s and most UK processors continue to invest in their businesses. Demand for milk products also remains strong and that should underpin a profitable future for those who remain in the sector, the Andersons analysis states.