The Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) and Young Farmers’ Clubs of Ulster (YFCU) took on a very challenging topic for debate at their joint conference – how farming may look 75 years from now, in the year 2100.
Prominent speakers included Dr Jack Bobo from University of California in Los Angles, Dr Rogier Schulte from Wageningen University in Holland; Prof Chris Elliott of the Institute for Global Food Security at Queen’s University Belfast and James Trotman from technology company, Codebase. Between them, likely developments and possible targets were spelt out.
But whether the targets are met by the year 2100 remains very much open to question. And few, if any of the attendees will be around in 2100 to make an assessment.
Jack Bobo identified the likely trends in the human population. He reckons there be 10 billion people all requiring food by the year 2100, but it will be an ageing population, with the main growth seen in Africa, but decline in China and India.
Obviously, more food will be required but it will have to be produced and delivered to consumers while protecting the environment.
New methods
He stressed that food producers will have to innovate and adopt new methods and techniques to deliver the food while achieving sustainable environmental standards.
Dr Bobo highlighted that we are starting from a good position. For example, in the UK, emissions of carbon dioxide per person are at 5.5 tonnes. This is about 40% lower than in the year 1990.
He said that developments in the next 25 years are of the utmost importance. And he stressed that it is necessary to bear in mind that sustainability is a journey rather than a destination.
Disruptions to systems
Rogier Schulte identified the difficulties farmers will face coping with the next disruption to their farming system. And disruption will definitely come about.
Farmers should be thinking about how they get their farms prepared for the next shock. He stressed the need for resilient systems and said that it was more important than chasing maximum efficiency in an enterprise. He highlighted the need for “buffers”. That could be an extra pit of silage kept in reserve or money in the bank to help cope with a period of poor prices.
He said farmers need to be “well connected” to sources of information including the science surrounding their particular enterprise. And they need to diversify, to have more than one enterprise on their farm.
Drawing on the work of the Lighthouse Farms network, Schulte highlighted the developments on a big dairy farm in Latvia.
Milk is now considered a by-product. Slurry and any silage waste are fed into the on-farm anaerobic digesters and sufficient electricity is produced to power over 2,500 households.
Data and data analysis will be a crucial part of the armoury for farmers going forward.
Heat is captured and used to aerate and heat water as part of the business of producing fish. The species of fish are eels and sturgeon, the latter famed for producing caviar - high-value caviar is now an important source of income for the farm.
Maybe fish are a step too far for farmers in NI, but it demonstrates the extent to which efforts to diversify can be taken.
Data
Local man, Prof Chris Elliott foresaw a future based on “data, data and more data including artificial intelligence”.
He made the quite amazing claim that 90% of all the data available to scientists has been created in the past two years. Data and data analysis will be a crucial part of the armoury for farmers going forward.
He also commented on the ‘Internet of Things’ which refers to interconnected devices and systems embedded with sensors, software and connectivity, enabling real-time data collection, analysis, and automation to improve efficiency and decision-making.
The Internet of Things will create a seismic shift in traceability and in transparency across supply chains.
However, he said the term “supply chain” was a misnomer and it should be named a “supply network”, adding that for many supply systems, it was actually an ugly and complicated network.
Chris Elliott said that NI could and should lead the way in protecting supply chains and he used the world-leading Food Fortress network developed here in response to the dioxin crisis as a very good example.
In conclusion he said that targets for the year 2100 needed to be achieved sooner and the sooner the better.
Outlining some startling developments in human evolution at the UFU / YFCU conference was James Trotman from Edinburgh based company, Codebase, which works with 1,500 of the UKs most innovative technology companies.
He majored in artificial intelligence (AI) which gives the ability to machines or computers to mimic human thinking and behaviour.
AI is like having a farm assistant that never gets tired, always gives accurate advice and helps you make better decisions.
AI is built around three main ideas.
First is Learning – AI systems learn from data, identifying patterns and improving over time.Second is Reasoning – it can analyse situations and make decisions, often faster and more accurately than humans can. And thirdly, Adaptation – AI adjusts its behaviour based on new information or changes in its environment. James said that AI is unlikely to replace humans - but humans with AI will soon replace humans without AI. AI gives people access to an infinite store of information.He gave a number of examples where AI plays a part.
Pest identification – company ArcTech uses scent detection to identify presence of pests and diseases.Using animal intakes to optimise diet.Use for diagnostics and disease prevention and for soil monitoring.Combining cameras, sensors and meteorological data to give full farm insight and knowledge.Mobility scoring using cameras in the parlour and in cattle races such as CattleEye – developed by local man, Terry Canning – and acquired last year by global giant, GEA.Other developments mentioned as probabilities or already in operation included. 3D printing of food is reckoned to be a $1bn industry by the year 2030.3D printing of replacement parts and hardware, eg for your tractor. Augmented reality veterinary intervention – put on headset and be connected to a vet. A robot-controlled vet and autonomous vehicles – in San Francisco, company Waymo.com is already doing substantial business with driverless taxis.And this autonomy has already been extended to tractors and other farm machinery.Reaction
In overall terms, the audience at the conference, comprised mainly of young people, recognised that these developments are here already, or are almost here and we will have to cope. In essence it is a very rapid revolution of what we do and how we do it and we will have to take it all in our stride. It’s a fast-developing scenario and those who don’t adapt will fall by the wayside and be left behind.
The Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) and Young Farmers’ Clubs of Ulster (YFCU) took on a very challenging topic for debate at their joint conference – how farming may look 75 years from now, in the year 2100.
Prominent speakers included Dr Jack Bobo from University of California in Los Angles, Dr Rogier Schulte from Wageningen University in Holland; Prof Chris Elliott of the Institute for Global Food Security at Queen’s University Belfast and James Trotman from technology company, Codebase. Between them, likely developments and possible targets were spelt out.
But whether the targets are met by the year 2100 remains very much open to question. And few, if any of the attendees will be around in 2100 to make an assessment.
Jack Bobo identified the likely trends in the human population. He reckons there be 10 billion people all requiring food by the year 2100, but it will be an ageing population, with the main growth seen in Africa, but decline in China and India.
Obviously, more food will be required but it will have to be produced and delivered to consumers while protecting the environment.
New methods
He stressed that food producers will have to innovate and adopt new methods and techniques to deliver the food while achieving sustainable environmental standards.
Dr Bobo highlighted that we are starting from a good position. For example, in the UK, emissions of carbon dioxide per person are at 5.5 tonnes. This is about 40% lower than in the year 1990.
He said that developments in the next 25 years are of the utmost importance. And he stressed that it is necessary to bear in mind that sustainability is a journey rather than a destination.
Disruptions to systems
Rogier Schulte identified the difficulties farmers will face coping with the next disruption to their farming system. And disruption will definitely come about.
Farmers should be thinking about how they get their farms prepared for the next shock. He stressed the need for resilient systems and said that it was more important than chasing maximum efficiency in an enterprise. He highlighted the need for “buffers”. That could be an extra pit of silage kept in reserve or money in the bank to help cope with a period of poor prices.
He said farmers need to be “well connected” to sources of information including the science surrounding their particular enterprise. And they need to diversify, to have more than one enterprise on their farm.
Drawing on the work of the Lighthouse Farms network, Schulte highlighted the developments on a big dairy farm in Latvia.
Milk is now considered a by-product. Slurry and any silage waste are fed into the on-farm anaerobic digesters and sufficient electricity is produced to power over 2,500 households.
Data and data analysis will be a crucial part of the armoury for farmers going forward.
Heat is captured and used to aerate and heat water as part of the business of producing fish. The species of fish are eels and sturgeon, the latter famed for producing caviar - high-value caviar is now an important source of income for the farm.
Maybe fish are a step too far for farmers in NI, but it demonstrates the extent to which efforts to diversify can be taken.
Data
Local man, Prof Chris Elliott foresaw a future based on “data, data and more data including artificial intelligence”.
He made the quite amazing claim that 90% of all the data available to scientists has been created in the past two years. Data and data analysis will be a crucial part of the armoury for farmers going forward.
He also commented on the ‘Internet of Things’ which refers to interconnected devices and systems embedded with sensors, software and connectivity, enabling real-time data collection, analysis, and automation to improve efficiency and decision-making.
The Internet of Things will create a seismic shift in traceability and in transparency across supply chains.
However, he said the term “supply chain” was a misnomer and it should be named a “supply network”, adding that for many supply systems, it was actually an ugly and complicated network.
Chris Elliott said that NI could and should lead the way in protecting supply chains and he used the world-leading Food Fortress network developed here in response to the dioxin crisis as a very good example.
In conclusion he said that targets for the year 2100 needed to be achieved sooner and the sooner the better.
Outlining some startling developments in human evolution at the UFU / YFCU conference was James Trotman from Edinburgh based company, Codebase, which works with 1,500 of the UKs most innovative technology companies.
He majored in artificial intelligence (AI) which gives the ability to machines or computers to mimic human thinking and behaviour.
AI is like having a farm assistant that never gets tired, always gives accurate advice and helps you make better decisions.
AI is built around three main ideas.
First is Learning – AI systems learn from data, identifying patterns and improving over time.Second is Reasoning – it can analyse situations and make decisions, often faster and more accurately than humans can. And thirdly, Adaptation – AI adjusts its behaviour based on new information or changes in its environment. James said that AI is unlikely to replace humans - but humans with AI will soon replace humans without AI. AI gives people access to an infinite store of information.He gave a number of examples where AI plays a part.
Pest identification – company ArcTech uses scent detection to identify presence of pests and diseases.Using animal intakes to optimise diet.Use for diagnostics and disease prevention and for soil monitoring.Combining cameras, sensors and meteorological data to give full farm insight and knowledge.Mobility scoring using cameras in the parlour and in cattle races such as CattleEye – developed by local man, Terry Canning – and acquired last year by global giant, GEA.Other developments mentioned as probabilities or already in operation included. 3D printing of food is reckoned to be a $1bn industry by the year 2030.3D printing of replacement parts and hardware, eg for your tractor. Augmented reality veterinary intervention – put on headset and be connected to a vet. A robot-controlled vet and autonomous vehicles – in San Francisco, company Waymo.com is already doing substantial business with driverless taxis.And this autonomy has already been extended to tractors and other farm machinery.Reaction
In overall terms, the audience at the conference, comprised mainly of young people, recognised that these developments are here already, or are almost here and we will have to cope. In essence it is a very rapid revolution of what we do and how we do it and we will have to take it all in our stride. It’s a fast-developing scenario and those who don’t adapt will fall by the wayside and be left behind.
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