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Even if we fully implement all of the policies and measures set out in the Government’s 2023 Climate Action Plan (CAP-23), the energy sector will still likely be off-track to stay within its share of Ireland’s legally binding carbon budgets.
The CAP23 contains a host of targets and measures, including a 75% emissions reduction from the electricity sector, 50% in the transport sector, 45% for commercial/public buildings, and a 40% reduction for residential buildings, 35% in industry, and 25% in agriculture. Energy spans across all of these sectors and requires action in each.
This stark warning was highlighted in the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) Energy in Ireland 2023 report and shows that unless further measures are implemented, Ireland is significantly off track.
In modelling of the anticipated impact of existing policies and measures, the SEAI estimated that energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could exceed their 2021-2025 carbon budget by 11%, or 17.2 MtCO2e.
This overshoot would mean that 16% of the 2026-2030 carbon budget is already ‘consumed’ before its five-year period begins. In the scenario modelled using existing measures, the 2026-2030 carbon budget allocation for energy-related emissions is fully consumed sometime in 2028 and exceeded by 24%, or 63.7 MtCO2e, by 2030.
The news is stark and shows that Ireland will have to do considerably more than first thought to have a chance of meeting our targets.
The Irish Farmers Journal recently sat down with the SEAI to discuss the new findings in their report.
Biggest users of energy
The transport sector is Ireland’s biggest user of energy, accounting for more than 40% of total final energy, which is more than the next two sectors (residential and industry) combined.
Transports remains one of the biggest sources of energy-related emissions and it appears as though transport emissions for 2023 could end up being around 11.8 MtCO2 e, up slightly on 2022.
These best estimates indicate a continuing rebound of transport energy demand into 2023. Diesel demand could be 1.3% higher than in 2022 and reach 98.3% of the pre-COVID-19 demand observed in 2019, while petrol demand may be 7.4% higher than in 2022.
The SEAI states that, in 2022, oil was the largest source of primary energy in Ireland, at around 48%, followed by natural gas (31%). Renewables accounted for just 13% of Ireland’s primary energy last year.
Agriculture accounts for a relatively small portion of the total final energy consumption in Ireland, at about 2.5%. Energy use in agriculture has been steadily increasing over the past decade.
Imported electricity
In the first nine months of 2023, the country imported over 9% of its electricity, significantly reducing Ireland’s electricity emissions during that period.
SEAI analysis shows that electricity emissions in 2023 may be down by as much as 25% compared to last year.
Electricity imported into Ireland is essentially classified as emissions-neutral, as the emissions are attributed to the country of production. Therefore, higher imports may result in lower total electricity emissions. Electricity emissions may amount to 7.3 MtCO2e, which is a significant reduction from 2022 emissions.
However, it highlights that the EU-UK carbon price differential driving these electricity imports could disappear as markets rebalance or as EU legislation is introduced.
Data centres drive demand
Electricity demand in Ireland continues to increase. The long-term average annual increase in electricity supplied to the national grid to meet our demand has remained relatively steady at 2.2% per annum.
The combining effect of this small annual increase means that Ireland’s electricity demand in 2022 was 24% higher than it was a decade earlier in 2012.
A sectoral analysis of Ireland’s electricity demand shows that practically all new electricity demand in the last decade has come from the commercial services sector of the economy.
Electricity demand in the commercial services sector has increased by 61.5% since 2012, while electricity demand in all other sectors (ie the sum of demand from Ireland’s industry, residential, transport, public services, and agriculture and fisheries sectors) has increased by just 8.0%.
Further analysis shows that within the commercial services sector, practically all new electricity demand in the last decade has come from the information and communication (ICT) sub-sector of the economy. Electricity demand in the ICT sub-sector has increased by 562% since 2012.
This rapid increase in ICT electricity demand has mainly been driven by increased energy demands from data centres. In 2022, 82% of all ICT electricity demand came from data centres. Given current trajectories, the electricity demand of the ICT sub-sector will equal and then surpass the electricity demand of the residential sector in 2023 or 2024.
While acknowledging the importance of data centres, the SEAI states that there is a clear need to balance the value of data centres to a modern digitised economy against the challenges of accommodating their electricity demand from available sources of renewable generation.
Acceleration
Speaking about the Energy in Ireland report, director of research and policy insights with SEAI, Margie McCarthy, said: “Despite the excellent progress made on renewable electricity, the momentum of our home energy upgrades and the uptake of electric vehicles, Ireland remains highly dependent on imported fossil fuels to satisfy our energy needs.”
She said that despite the positive investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy, progress is still too slow.
“Unless we accelerate the pace of change, it will not be enough for us to achieve our national and EU obligations.
“Despite all the evidence, we are not yet acting in line with what climate science tells us, that we are living through a climate emergency,” she said.
The initial findings of the SEAI’s new Behavioural Energy and Travel Tracker’s first report delve into the analysis of energy behaviours among people in Ireland during the period from December 2022 to April 2023.
A significant 40% of individuals admitted to heating unoccupied rooms or homes
Among the findings were that people reported a high understanding of how to save energy and stated that they were making a substantial effort to use energy efficiently.
However, there are some areas where energy is being wasted.
A significant 40% of individuals admitted to heating unoccupied rooms or homes, while a quarter of thermostat owners maintained temperatures at 21°C or higher.
Fewer than half of the respondents reported having a thermostat installed in their home.
Personal consumption
Around 45% of Ireland’s energy use is for direct personal consumption, mostly in our homes and in our cars.
So, it is absolutely essential that we all become more energy-efficient to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, said McCarthy.
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