At the end of a week where the UK minister with responsibility for agriculture said that there would be no dilution of standards in the UK post-Brexit, reports this morning from the government think-in suggest there will be managed divergence.

This has been a feature of the Brexit negotiations to date. Opinion and positions within government seem to swing between staying close to the EU (soft Brexit) and complete separation, with the UK heading off to do its own thing in international trade (hard Brexit).

Meanwhile, the UK Labour party, the main opposition, is sending strong signals that it is moving to adopt membership of the customs union as policy. This could lead to Labour supporting a position of pro-EU Conservative MPs and a defeat of the government’s Brexit policy in parliament. If this was to happen, it would lead to a serious split in the UK Conservative party and a general election.

There is a strong view that this blunt debate has to take place in the governing party and so far the prime minister has avoided it and a split through a series of fudges on the nature of Brexit. This has kept the pro-EU and Brexit MPs on board for now, but as the negotiation has to soon proceed into more precision on outcomes, this cannot be maintained indefinitely.

For Irish farmers and the food industry, it means continued uncertainty. Just as there are indications of continued alignment with the EU as was the case with the phase one agreement in December and again last week at the NFU agm, the latest reports suggest a swing the other way. This is not the outcome that Ireland needs.

Read more

Mercosur and Brexit present twin threat to sucklers

'Regulatory alignment as important as customs' after Brexit