China’s anti-subsidy probe into EU dairy products will prove in time to be “the dog that didn’t bark in the night”, a former top EU agricultural trade negotiator has said.

Speaking at the annual Agricultural Science Association (ASA) conference, former EU chief agricultural trade negotiator John Clarke said he thinks the investigation by China is symbolic and will not have significant consequences for Irish dairy.

“I think you don’t need to worry too much about that. It will playout very symbolically; impose a small anti-subsidy duty in a few months’ time.

“They have to, for themselves, show they don’t accept electric vehicle tariffs lying down.

“I think it will prove to be, as Sherlock Holmes said, the dog that didn’t bark in the night,” he added.

Clarke, who is also a former European Commission director of international relations, said that if China had wanted to cause disruption, it would have chosen a more impactful industry.

Impact

“If they wanted to really exercise leverage over Europe they would have targeted a much higher value sector like Airbus, pharmaceuticals, chemicals or machinery – they didn’t. They didn’t even include infant formula in the anti-subsidy investigation,” Clarke said.

Last month China’s ministry of commerce opened an investigation into subsidies paid to European dairy farmers.

The probe covers cheese and some fresh milk products.

The dispute began with the EU’s proposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

‘Winter is coming’

While Clarke remained broadly positive on the potential impact of the China probe, the former EU chief agricultural trade negotiator warned of a challenging upcoming period for EU-global trade in general. “As they say in Game of Thrones, ‘Winter is coming.’ I think we’re looking at a very difficult, challenging, five to 10 years.

“Days of open trade, global-Europe trade for all have already disappeared.

“There has already been in the last two years in Europe a major repurposing of trade policy to pursue sustainability goals for export, not just champagne and cars, but European values.

“That has received a lot of push back from Europe’s trading partners,” he added.