With the calling of a general election now only hours away, what does the Irish Farmers Journal survey tell us about the potential make up of the next Government?
It would seem that the two senior coalition partners are well set to poll well, and are the most likely pair of anchors for the next administration.
If Fine Gael’s 37% support among farmers was replicated across the country, it would be in position to push for a single-party Government.
You would get extremely good odds on that happening.
General polling would suggest that 30% is the upper limit of any party, even if they have a fantastic three-week campaign.
In 2020, Sinn Féin gained the highest first-preference vote at 24.5%.
So a coalition is inevitable.
Will Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have the numbers to form a Government together without further help? It’s unlikely, they would need to gain 21 seats between them.
Could Independent Ireland gain enough seats to be the third leg under the Government stool?
If the party replicates its performance in our survey, they might.
It could have more seats than the Labour or Green Party, and ideologically could sit easier with TDs of the main two parties, particularly rural TDs.
It’s all to play for.
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