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There was flurry of activity in Brussels this lunchtime at the comment made in the daily press briefing that there would be a hard border in Ireland if there was a no-deal Brexit.
When pressed on what would happen in a no-deal scenario, the European Commission’s chief spokesperson said: “If you would like to push me and speculate on what might happen in a no-deal scenario in Ireland I think it is pretty obvious, you will have a hard border.”
If this is the first time it has been said explicitly, it should not be that great a surprise no matter who does not want it if there is a no-deal Brexit. It was the EU’s reason for a backstop in the first place.
Where there is any border between an EU country and a non-EU country, there is a hard border and it is difficult to see how a border with the UK could be any different if there was no deal.
The border
However, any border would look very different from what people remember was there before 1992 and the coming of the single market.
For a start, the physical infrastructure was dominated by military posts reflecting the troubles which were still ongoing.
Customs positions also had physical infrastructure but these had, in many cases, moved back from the border itself to nearby towns.
Long queues of commercial traffic were a reality though as customs agents processed paperwork that accompanied each delivery across the border.
Commercial traffic
For non-commercial traffic, cross-border travel was largely unhindered before 1992 apart from the security checks.
If a no-deal Brexit becomes a reality, it is most likely that that will remain the case for non-business traffic including people crossing the border to their place of employment on the other side.
For business and commercial traffic it would be a different matter.
Despite the comments from both the UK and Irish Governments about not having a hard border, the reason the EU insisted on the backstop was to prevent it.
The EU 28 was unique in that it effectively eliminated borders, at least for commercial and personal travel.
Even between the friendliest of neighbouring countries such as Norway and Switzerland, who border the EU, there is a border infrastructure.
Borders between EU countries unique
What is striking about these is the efficiency with which they operate as the Irish Farmers Journal discovered on visits to both the Sweden-Norway and Swiss-German borders. Use of technology speeds the process up and vehicles proceed with minimal delay, 10 minutes being typical.
Of course, 10 minutes on the 13,000 commercial vehicles crossing the Irish border at its different points daily would be quite a logjam.
The number of crossings, however, would be likely to fall in the event of a no deal as many commercial transactions, particularly those of an agricultural nature would diminish if the prohibitive WTO tariffs were to become a reality.
Customs procedures could be carried out on a business-to-business basis, from the business of departure to the business where the product arrived
Additionally, a hard border does not necessarily demand border infrastructure as customs procedures could be carried out on a business-to-business basis, from the business of departure to the business where the product arrived.
This would require a mobile customs team and may just be a feature on the EU side of the border if the UK remained committed to the non-establishment of a border on the Northern Ireland side.
That would not make life any easier for the NI businesses though as they would have to be compliant with EU requirements on the other side of the border, having their paperwork or electronic equivalent in place.
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