The sheep kill for 2019 recorded a significant reduction on 2018 levels with throughput falling by 7% or some 204,873 head to 2,782,661. It is worth noting that throughput in 2018 and 2017 was the highest level in over a decade as detailed in Figure 1 at 2.99m and 2.95m head, respectively.

The big change to the kill in 2018 was a sharp drop in the ewe and ram kill and a marked drop in hogget throughput. The ewe and ram kill fell 19.4% or by 97,583 head to 406,663. The ewe and ram kill in 2018 was inflated by numerous weather challenges including the beast from the east storm and a prolonged drought period underpinning drafting of any unproductive or problem ewes.

Producer sentiment also recovered slightly during 2019

The ewe and ram kill has thankfully returned to a more normal level in 2019 with favourable conditions in spring 2019 reducing lamb mortality and health related issues.

Producer sentiment also recovered slightly during 2019 despite producer prices lagging behind 2018 levels and this is said to have contributed to a steadying in ewe numbers at farm level.

A collapse in hogget prices in the period from March to May drove this price reduction with farm-gate returns in 2019 only bettering 2018 levels for a short period

Price analysis up to the middle of December as reported by the Department of Agriculture was recorded at €4.76/kg compared with €5.06/kg in 2018.

A collapse in hogget prices in the period from March to May drove this price reduction with farm-gate returns in 2019 only bettering 2018 levels for a short period in the first few weeks of the year and over the Christmas period.

Lower hogget kill

As mentioned already, the hogget kill was the second big factor contributing to the decline in throughput. The number of hoggets drafted off farms reduced 11% or 90,879 head to 739,027 head.

The record throughput in 2018 reduced the carryover of hoggets into 2019 while higher prices in the previous year attracted higher numbers of ewe lambs forward which did not occur in 2019. Supplies imported from Northern Ireland for direct slaughter also dropped by 24,671 head for the first three months of the year.

As reflected in Figure 2, throughput dwindled in February and March before increasing for the Easter trade.

Delayed throughput of hoggets contributed to a sharp increase in the average carcase weight of sheep processed during this period, which had a negative knock-on effect on the spring lamb trade with higher volumes of hogget meat and larger cuts coming on to the market at the same time as spring lamb.

Factory gate protests

Figure 2 also details another notable event with sheep throughput collapsing during factory gate protests controlled by the Beef Plan Movement. Throughput of sheep from week 30 to 38 reduced by 105,982 head when compared with the same period in 2018.

Prior to the protests the spring lamb kill was running 49,129 head above 2018 levels with this figure recorded at 27,687 head less at the end of the eight weeks.

Dawn Meats Ballyhaunis and Kepak Athleague were the worst-affected plants with processing ceased by the protests

Ewe and ram throughput went from running 50,578 head lower to 79,717 head lower or an increase of over 29,000 head.

Dawn Meats Ballyhaunis and Kepak Athleague were the worst-affected plants with processing ceased by the protests, while processing in Kildare Chilling was interrupted intermittently.

Lower northern imports

The number of sheep imported from Northern Ireland for direct slaughter in Republic of Ireland plants fell from 432,460 head in 2018 to 390,050 head in 2019. This is detailed in Figure 3 along with the five-year average trend line which totalled 394,767 head.

The 42,410 head reduction was also accompanied by the number of sheep imported from Northern Ireland to farms in the south falling by 6,700 to 56,383 head.

This supply avenue has been an important addition to numbers travelling south for direct slaughter following a sharp increase in throughput from 2016 onwards.

There were no sheep exported from the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland for direct slaughter with just 113 head recorded as exported to farms in the North.

The lower numbers imported south were influenced by similar factors to that which lowered the kill in the south.

The lamb and hogget kill reduced by 9,906 head to 385,694

This is backed up by the fact that the northern sheep kill in 2019 decreased by 5,050 head to 415,294 head.

The lamb and hogget kill reduced by 9,906 head to 385,694, while the ewe and ram kill increased by 4,856 head to reach 29,600.

The number of sheep exported from Northern Ireland to Britain for direct slaughter fell by 2,098 to 1,552, while the number of sheep exported to farms in Britain increased 5,549 head to 47,827.

The number of sheep imported into Northern Ireland from Britain for direct slaughter fell from 1,278 to just 168 head, while the number of sheep imported to farms increased from 5,042 head in 2018 to 8,676.

2020 market predictions

It is hard to predict market performance when you consider the way prices unfolded in spring 2019.

Hogget supplies were much tighter than the previous two years which in theory should have underpinned increased farm-gate returns.

The opposite occurred, however, with factories willing to handle smaller numbers and remaining resolute in their stance on price.

Sheep supplies will be equally as tight as in spring 2019

Market dynamics look more favourable at the start of 2020 and are pointing towards positive performance this spring.

Sheep supplies will be equally as tight as in spring 2019 and could be possibly even tighter. A factor that could have a big influence on the trade is tighter supplies of sheep in Britain.

Higher numbers were pushed on to the market in 2019 in advance of Brexit deadlines and producers are already seeing the effect of this with strong appetite for lamb in recent weeks. Lower supplies of New Zealand lamb on the market will also have a bearing on the trade this spring and could leave supplies in the UK even tighter.