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The sheep kill has tightened recently, but higher numbers killed at different periods throughout the year is witnessing numbers running 207,844 head above 2016 levels.
The total number of sheep processed to the week ending 24 October was recorded by the Department of Agriculture at 2,326,709 head, as detailed in Table 1.
If throughput continues to maintain parity with 2016 levels, there could potentially be another 550,000 head processed (including last week’s kill), which would leave the kill surpassing 2.8m head.
However, maintaining parity with the 2016 kill for November and December could be challenging given the poor weather-related performance of lambs in recent weeks. If this is the case, then it is likely that there will be a significant carryover of lambs into 2018.
There has also been an additional 47,333 lambs processed from the period 2 May to 24 October (detailed in Table 2), which could leave supplies tighter for the remainder of the year. A high percentage of this additional throughput has occurred in the period from August to mid-October.
Extra throughput
It is the first five months of the year that has contributed most to higher throughput. As detailed in Table 1, there was an additional 92,217 hoggets processed in the first four months of 2017.
The strong hogget kill lasted for longer in 2017 and this is reflected in Table 2 where there was 33,220 extra hoggets processed after this point. Factors contributing to higher carryover levels include a growing national ewe flock, higher prolificacy levels and a move away from early lamb production.
The ewe and ram kill has also increased by 41,312 head in 2017 (Table 3). Again, this is partly due to a higher replacement rate from a larger national ewe flock. Of the higher kill, 13,127 head were processed in the first four months of 2017, with 28,185 head after this period. This includes a period of some very large kills since mid-September, with the kill frequently exceeding 12,000 ewes and rams.
Higher production
Higher throughput is contributing to higher production and, in turn, increased sheepmeat exports.
Data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) shows total sheepmeat exports increasing 5,687t to 35,954 in the period January to August 2017. This follows an increase of 3,554t in the same period from 2015 to 2016.
Figure 1 shows the main destinations where this additional sheepmeat was exported to.
France remains our number one market, accounting for 12,991t or 36% of total exports. This is followed by the UK, which imported 8,042t or 22% of total exports.
The impressive growth in emerging markets in recent years thankfully continues to gather momentum.
Exports to Sweden increased 577t to 3,356t. Germany and Belgium also recorded growth in exports of 13% and 5% respectively.
Two very notable increases were 539t extra exported to Italy to reach 1,515t, while exports to the Hong Kong market have experienced massive recovery , reaching 904t. This includes lower value cuts and fifth-quarter products and is an important outlet for these components.
There was also exports to new markets, with 163t exported to South Africa, 143t to Vietnam, 96t to Taiwan and 74t to China. Canada also recorded growth, with exports rising from 70t to 382t.
Northern imports
The number of sheep imported for direct slaughter from Northern Ireland is steady with 2016 levels.
While there are differences in particular weeks, the total number of sheep imported in 2017 stood at 305,896 for the week ending 21 October 2017, which is 572 head lower than the same period in 2016.
The number of sheep processed in Northern Ireland stood at 364,858 to the week ending 21 October. This is 7,033 head above 2016 levels, despite 2016 including an extra week’s kill data due to the way weeks fell at the start of the year.
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