Total sheep production in the UK is expected to fall to 263,000t in 2024, representing a fall of 8% on 2023 volumes.

The lower production forecast by the Agriculture Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) is based on lower throughput for the first three quarters of 2024 and a revision of the number of lambs reared per ewe.

The latter lower rearing estimates, according to the AHDB, is stemming from increased lamb losses in spring due to disease and weather challenges.

The production update stated: “The lamb crop for the 2024/25 season (March - March) is forecast at 15.5 million head, a decline of 3.7% on the previous year.

"This is driven by the combination of a smaller breeding flock in 2023, as demonstrated in the December census data, and a lower estimated rearing rate in 2024, attributed to challenges with weather and disease.”

Sheep slaughter

The number of sheep slaughtered under the classification of ‘clean sheep slaughter’ (includes lambs, hoggets) from January to September 2024 totalled 8.2m head, a decline of 7.9% on 2023.

For the 2024 calendar year, the forecast clean sheep slaughter is 11.3m, down 8% on the 2023 levels.

The AHDB expects that, in line with seasonal trends, it will see the highest level of clean sheep slaughter in the fourth quarter of 2024, as detailed in the slaughter graph.

AHDB UK sheep production forecasts

It adds that carcase weights were up very slightly year on year in the first half of 2024, but eased in quarter three.

AHDB livestock analyst Becky Smith said: “The relative stability in weights indicates that year on year, decreases in production are mostly driven by reduced throughputs. Looking ahead, carcase weights in Q4 are forecast to remain stable on last year.”

The adult sheep slaughter is forecast to finish the year at approximately 1.45m head, back 12.1% on 2023 levels. Continued contraction in the breeding ewe flock is being blamed for the reduced throughput.

2025 forecast

The continued contraction in the UK’s breeding ewe flock is also feeding into predictions of a smaller lamb crop in 2025, compared with the 2024 season.

There are slight improvements expected in the number of lambs reared per ewe, but it is not expected that this will compensate for fewer ewes joined with rams, with the current forecast sitting at 15.2m head.

The AHDB forecasts a slightly higher carryover of 2024-born lambs into 2025, but this is still expected to be lower than in recent years.