The low impact of Irish agriculture emissions

The Director General of DG Agri Wolfgang Burtscher spoke of his familiarity with extensive agriculture in Austria during the Irish Farmers Journal webinar last week. According to Eurostat data, Austria has an average stocking density of 1.0 livestock units (LU) per hectare for grazing livestock, the same as the EU average, while Ireland is just slightly higher at 1.2 LU units per hectare (Figure 1). The dairy heard increase since then would increase the Irish figure to 1.4 LU based on CSO data for 2019.

He also referenced Austria’s level of organic production, which at 25% is the target for the EU by 2030 in the Farm to Fork strategy and massively ahead of Ireland, where just 2% of production is organic.

Increasing organic production would mean less output and in the case of Ireland’s predominantly livestock-based farming system, fewer cattle and sheep. The Farm to Fork strategy continually refers to sustainable livestock systems and a surge in organic production would certainly mean far fewer ruminant livestock.

In 2016, Ireland was only marginally ahead of the EU average stocking rate per hectare though an EU average incorporating countries spread between the Arctic Circle and the Mediterranean is somewhat meaningless (see Figure 1). Warm and dry climates are better suited to production of citrus fruit and grapes for wine than cattle, while the colder regions of northern Europe have much more forestry. Grass production and livestock are concentrated in the milder, wetter climates, though of course there can be intensive livestock systems based on grain feeding and indoor accommodation.

Just how extensive Irish livestock farming is compared with other countries with similar climate is illustrated in Figure 1. The Netherlands, one of the world’s most productive countries, has a stocking rate for grazed livestock at more than twice the Irish level at 2.7 LU/ha for grazing livestock, rising to 3.8LU/ha when all types of livestock are included.

Belgium, like Ireland, has a large area of grassland, and its grazing livestock density is 2.4 LU/ha. Denmark is also ahead of Ireland at 1.7 LU/ha. Given Ireland’s land and climate profile, our grazed livestock farming is already extensive.

The big issue for environmentalists is the fact that Irish agriculture contributes 30% of Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions, compared to an EU average of 10% of emissions from agriculture. When this is displayed on a graph (Figure 2), there is an impression that Irish agriculture is a serious problem.

The difficulty with statistics and averages is that they don’t properly tell the story behind the figures. There are two main reasons why agriculture makes up such a high proportion of Irish GHG emissions. Unlike the industrialised economies of northern Europe, Ireland had very little heavy industry and no tradition of coal mining or steel manufacture. Moving from an agriculture-based economy to a high-tech economy means agriculture carries a disproportionately high share of GHG emissions compared to countries with heavy industry.

The other reason is that because of our climate and natural grassland, the most suitable land use in virtually every area of the country is livestock ranging between high-output cows in the most fertile soils to sucklers in the more marginal grassland and sheep in the more mountainous regions.

Ireland’s emissions

The absence of heavy industry may make agriculture’s share of total emissions disproportionality high but it also means that Irish total GHG emissions of 63,805t are a miniscule fraction of the EU’s overall total emissions of 4.5m tonnes (Figure 3). The biggest offenders are the countries with heavy industry and consequently a relatively low proportion of their total emissions coming from agriculture. Germany has the highest overall at 936,000t, followed by the UK on 505,000t.

In the Netherlands, agriculture contributes less than 10% of total emissions but overall output is 206,000t, more than three times Ireland’s total emissions. Belgium, which has less than half the area of Ireland, produces 119,000t of emissions despite agriculture again contributing less than 10% of its total. All of this means Ireland contributed 1.4% of the total EU GHG emissions in 2017, 30% of which was from agriculture. If agricultural production ceased completely in Ireland, it would mean that the overall EU GHG emissions would be reduced by less than 0.5%.

Despite this, there will remain pressure on farming to reduce its GHG emissions and organic production is clearly linked with sustainability in the Farm to Fork strategy. There will be comprehensive analysis of Irish organic farming in next week’s Irish Farmers Journal but in principle if there is sufficient incentive through EU payments, it would be straightforward for many farmers to go organic.

Many of Ireland’s smaller, often part-time suckler and sheep farms are already using low levels of fertiliser and pesticides, and the feed is primarily grazing and silage. There is certainly scope for these to make the switch but the reason why there is so little organic production in Ireland is that there simply isn’t the market. If, however, there was sufficient incentive through EU supports, then it would become a more viable option.

Small market

It is likely to remain support-dependent, especially in a major exporting country like Ireland. It is the EU ambition that the market increases and as it becomes more mainstream the likelihood is that market prices will fall closer to conventional production. Even at present there are many examples of organic production being sold in mainstream markets, with peak season milk production being an example.

Organic sales are also dependent on consumers with sufficient disposable income to afford spending more on organic food. Demand in all countries fluctuates in line with the overall performance of the economy. As the EU enters the COVID-related recession, disposable income and consumer confidence could be weak in the immediate future.

We must look beyond agriculture for a meaningful reduction

Despite the contribution of Irish agriculture to the total EU GHG emissions being miniscule, the direction of travel both nationally and at EU level is that they will have to be reduced. Given that Irish dairy is the most efficient in the EU for emissions per litre of milk and beef is fourth in emissions per kilo, it is an absolute cut that is demanded. The fastest way to make an overall reduction is by cutting numbers of livestock. If farmers have to make this choice and there is strong financial support for organic, then it becomes an option for farmers to consider. However, to achieve a meaningful reduction in total EU emissions, policymakers will have to look beyond agriculture.