Grain markets remain relatively stable at present, despite the drop in markets in general amid global trade wars. While grain prices did drop last week, they recovered and have declined again this week.
Grain markets remain relatively stable at present, despite the drop in markets in general amid global trade wars.
While grain prices did drop last week, they recovered and have declined again this week.
However, the weak dollar against the euro is probably a factor in this, as European grain becomes less competitive when there is a big difference in currencies.
To put things in perspective, the French price for December wheat was at €236/t on 19 March. It dropped to €225.25/t by 28 March. On 3 and 4 April it held at €224.50/t.
It climbed to €228/t on Monday evening 8 April. That price was at €225.25/t on Wednesday afternoon.
In France, 76% of the soft wheat area was reported to be in good or excellent condition at the end of March, up slightly on the previous report.
The UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reported this week that Australian wheat production looks set to decline by 16% for the 2025/2026 season, which could help markets.
Maize prices remain fairly stable on the continent and maize prices in the US recovered somewhat this week and were looking positive on Wednesday afternoon. The dollar’s position could be helping these prices. The supply and demand report due this week will be one to watch for traders.
Rapeseed
Reuters reported this week that oil prices have hit a four-year low.
Rapeseed prices are also down. November French rapeseed was at €471/t on Wednesday afternoon, down from €478.25/t last Friday.
Strategie Grains has estimated EU rapeseed production at 19m tonnes, up 13% on 2024/2025. Sunflower production is also up.
US soybean prices were declining and this probably affected rapeseed prices.
The US and China’s tariff movements will be closely watched by markets. The announcement of a 34% tariff on US imports to China last week puts US soybean exports into question.
The EU is not expected to implement a tariff on US soybeans until the end of the year. Some countries such as Germany are big buyers of US soybeans. Brazil is likely to see an uptake in its exports. The harvest is finishing up there at present.
Native prices
At home, spot prices remain stable, with €235/t or under reported for barley and prices of €240/t or under for wheat.
November prices are lower than this at about €225/t for barley and €10/t more for wheat. This week, Dairygold offered growers €190/t for green barley at harvest and €200/t for green wheat. The oilseed rape price offered was €450/t, down €5/t on the last offer.
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