The medium-term EU agricultural outlook report’s expected 2035 EU cereal output of 267.7tm tonnes is just marginally ahead of current average annual output levels, but pulses are expected to grow over the coming decade, although only by a modest 3%.

The outlook foresees a flatlining of barley and maize yields relative to 2023-2025’s harvests, while wheat yields are shaping up for a 0.1% per year rise out to 2035.

The report expects the EU to remain a net importer of pulses, despite an anticipated decline in demand with falling livestock numbers over a period of an increasing area planted to protein crops.

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Growth

Potential positive influences on EU average yields over the coming years include the adoption of new technologies and eastern member states catching up on the yield gap with western member states.

Negative forces on yields cited in the report are the increasing frequency in extreme weather events, an expansion of land area cultivated with lower yielding farm practices like organics and input affordability issues, particularly around nitrogen fertilisers.