The election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the US has completely overshadowed what was already going to be a low-key COP 29 summit in Azerbaijan starting on Monday and running until 22 November.

When he was president last time around, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement which committed to actions required to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

This policy was reversed when President Biden came into office in January 2021, and while climate didn’t feature prominently in Donald Trump’s election campaign, he spoke of cutting investment in electric cars and green energy, heavily supported by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act and intended to wean the US off dependence on fossil fuels.

The incoming president has been dismissive of this and is committed to investment in fossil fuels.

Leaving wider global politics aside, the other element of a Trump presidency that has the potential to impact Irish farmers is his commitment to imposing tariffs to protect US industry.

Last time round his most famous trade spat was with China though this was partially resolved by a Phase One trade deal. US agri exports were damaged by being excluded from China though farmers were kept on side by generous government support that acted as compensation.

During the present campaign, he indicated that he wants a universal 10% tariff on imports with much more in specific sectors like cars.

The US is a substantial export market for Irish dairy, some pig meat and a small amount of beef. Irish dairy exports survived a previous tariff spat during the Boeing – Airbus dispute but they would be still unwelcome.

If the US introduced substantial tariffs on beef imports, it could cause Brazil and in in particular Australia and New Zealand, who have large tariff-free quotas for the US, to look elsewhere.

The UK would be an obvious option for them and Europe after a Mercosur deal would be a real option for the major South American beef exporters.

The return of President Trump to the White House leaves Europe alone as a global leader in tackling climate change but it is tariff policy that could have the greatest direct and indirect effect on Irish farmers in the years ahead.