A reduction in UK cereals output of almost 30% is being forecast for the 2020 harvest by consultants at the Andersons Centre.

Richard King said that lower yields due to continued dry weather and reduced planting during the wet autumn could see wheat output decline by 40%.

We are probably going to carry over a considerable amount of the 2019 crop into 2020

Barley output in the UK is forecast for a smaller reduction of 10-15%, due to a larger area being sown this spring.

Prices

A stronger demand this year for feed barley due to drought conditions could help support prices, but there are other factors to consider.

“We are probably going to carry over a considerable amount of the 2019 crop into 2020 and that is serving to keep a lid on values, particularly in the barley market where COVID-19 has brought an end to brewing and malting barley demand,” suggested King.

We have seen some firming in prices

The UK cereals sector is heavily influenced by world markets and King indicated that dry weather is currently having an impact across Europe and into Russia, although issues have not been seen in USA yet.

“We have seen some firming in prices, but whether it is enough to offset yield losses is perhaps questionable,” he said.

Malting

However, in Scotland, it is hoped that malting barley prices could be underpinned by a reduced supply of suitable material from England. But according to Julian Bell from SAC consulting, it is vital that Scottish growers get rain soon to support crop yield and quality.