Even if the war between Iran and the USA/Israel ends in an early ceasefire, the damage to world commodity markets has already been done.

Oil and gas prices will not return to pre-crisis levels quickly, fertiliser costs have risen and there are fears that rising input costs in agriculture will affect crop yields, hence world commodity markets and ultimately grocery prices.

Higher transport costs for hauliers inevitably propagate in all directions.

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The only response from the Irish Government has been an Exchequer subsidy to those most affected, or perhaps to those on whose behalf the loudest media anger has been ventilated.

The package of measures, mainly subsidies via indirect tax cuts on energy products, will cost roughly €250m over the announced nine-week duration, adding to the budget pressure caused by big overshoots across the board on planned spending in recent years.

Finance minister Simon Harris was relaxed: “Thank God we have a surplus” was his reassuring summary. There was supposed to be a surplus of €5 billion for 2026, but overshoots have already emerged just three months into the current year.

Add the €250m energy giveaway with possibly more to come and the surplus will hardly be half the figure indicated by the minister last autumn. God deserves less gratitude than the minister imagines.

A continuation of the subsidies beyond the end of May is openly contemplated by Government sources according to Pat Healy writing in The Irish Times last weekend. Healy lists the demands in PR handouts hitting his inbox, lamenting that “...almost our entire political debate consists of demands for more spending”.

His list, too long to repeat, includes the following measures which would reduce Government revenue or increase current spending: an end to carbon tax on all fuels, higher student grants, more schoolteachers for areas qualifying for DEIS schools, more teachers also for areas that do not qualify for DEIS, better pay for Gardaí, higher electricity credits, more subsidies for public transport and so on.

Fuel rationing will have to be considered within a week of Exchequer subsidies which reduced taxes on fuel.

Healy’s list does not reference the demands for more capital spending. Reports in the provincial papers are revealing. Local TDs and councillors are constantly seeking increased allocations from the central Exchequer for roads, bridges and public transport facilities, including light and heavy rail lines as well as Luas-type light rail in every city outside Dublin.

They urge that each regional airport ought to have rail as well as bus service, even though several have inadequate numbers of air passengers, despite capital and operating subsidies.

As the famous Cork hurling goalkeeper Donal Óg Cusack remarked on RTÉ radio last year, many GAA county boards are planning new or expanded stadiums despite infrequent matches which attract large crowds.

Not to be outdone, the Football Association of Ireland wants Exchequer support for new stadiums for every club in the League of Ireland, and can again count on support from local politicians.

All of the extra dosh is to come from unidentified benefactors or the ever-bountiful Exchequer. The Minister for Finance is on the record as favouring a brand-new naval base in Galway, and there have been calls for further bases in Donegal, on the Shannon Estuary, in Dublin and at Arklow and Bremore, also on the east coast.

Each of these would cost several hundred million, not including the cost for extra naval vessels. New frigates, medium-sized warships, appear to cost €300m or more according to military websites, while a submarine will set you back at least a billion, before paying for operations over a minimum thirty-year lifespan. No cost estimates for the recent rash of military ambitions have been furnished.

If all of these schemes, none ruled out by central Government, were to be funded, the apparent budget surplus would vanish in short order. It may well vanish anyway if the war in the Middle East continues, and most observers fear an international slowdown even if there is early progress towards a ceasefire.

With threats to the current budget and elaborate demands for extra capital spending, the Department of Finance will have started worrying about the State’s balance sheet.

Gross sovereign debt remains above €210 billion and the rate of interest on fresh borrowing has risen sharply. Ten-year Irish Government borrowing now costs almost 3.4%, versus about 2.8% last autumn. Other countries too have seen borrowing costs rise and maturing debt must be re-borrowed each year at today’s interest rate, along with any emerging deficit.

The Government’s measures have been denounced as too little by opposition parties, and the populist pressures are strong enough to ensure the eventual tightening of fiscal policy.

Remember the pre-2008 experiment, reliance on hope rather than a realistic plan for the public finances?