Earlier dates for Easter, as well as the Muslim festivals of Ramadan and Eid al-Adha, will offer a better outlet for hogget throughput in 2018, Bord Bia’s sheep sector manager Declan Fennell said at the agency’s annual meat marketing seminar on Friday.

Easter falls on 1 April this year, followed by Ramadan from 15 May to 14 June and Eid al-Adha on 22 August. This is of particular importance for the live trade, with 81% of live sheep exports occurring in the month ahead of Eid al-Adha. Live exports fell by 26% last year.

For the next six years, the gap between Easter and Ramadan will narrow further, with just one week separating the two festivals in 2021. Declan said this would create a welcome boost to demand earlier in the year, but poses the challenge of managing procurement to satisfy this peak.

He reported strong 2017 sheepmeat export performance to Sweden (+18%), where Ireland is now the number one origin for lamb, and Germany (+9%). France, the largest export market for Irish sheepmeat, recovered, but modestly (+2%). Exports started in earnest to Canada.

Unexpectedly, the deteriorating exchange rate helped Irish exports to the UK grow by 8% last year. “The fall in sterling meant less New Zealand lamb went into the UK,” Declan explained, leaving space for Irish product.

While the average Irish price of €4.77/kg last year was 5c lower than in 2016, Fennell pointed out that it was higher at €4.84 during the May to December period, which is the most important spring lamb marketing period. This was due to tighter supplies as a result of poor weather conditions, he explained.

For the coming year, he forecasts similar hogget numbers to 2017 and a 2% growth in the overall Irish flock, after throughput hit a record high last year. Irish production is on a rising trend, showing a 36% increase in the kill since the low point of 2010.

Chinese demand

The UK has a large carryover of hoggets this year, but is importing less from New Zealand, which itself sees its flock decline and is facing drought. However, Australia is an expanding competitor to watch on Asian and Middle Eastern markets, where most growth is expected.

“In China, the biggest importer globally, domestic supply is tightening and demand growing, but they are not paying the high prices they used to,” Declan said.

While Irish sheepmeat does not currently have access to China, Chinese demand absorbs exports from Ireland’s competitors in other markets.

Decline in traditional markets

Rupert Claxton of the food market research firm Gira also described the Chinese market as “positive”. Although the country has imported less sheepmeat in recent years than during the 2013-2014 peak, he said this was growing again and is “still tremendously higher than what we were doing previously”.

This is all the more important, as traditional markets such as continental Europe continue to see consumption fall, he added.

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2017 strongest year on record for Irish meat exports – Bord Bia