Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) outlook report for 2025 paints a positive picture for both beef and sheepmeat exports in the year ahead. It identifies lower beef production and lower sheepmeat production in New Zealand for the next couple of years as an opportunity for Australia to “further consolidate market share gains and consumer preference”.
Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) outlook report for 2025 paints a positive picture for both beef and sheepmeat exports in the year ahead.
It identifies lower beef production and lower sheepmeat production in New Zealand for the next couple of years as an opportunity for Australia to “further consolidate market share gains and consumer preference”.
The report highlights that global markets are always shifting and notes the impact of “multiple regional conflicts, cost of living concerns and impacts of extreme weather”.
Year ahead
Looking at the year ahead, projections indicate that Australia will increase beef exports by 1% on 2024, mutton by 13%, but lamb exports are forecast to drop 6% on the record high of 2024.
Australia exported 74% of its beef production and 78% of its sheepmeat production in 2024 to 100 different countries.
The US is again expected to be a huge market in 2025 following the record volumes exported there for both beef and lamb last year.
This additional demand was one of the reasons why volumes to China fell in 2024, despite the fact that the export suspensions on six Australian factories was lifted and two extra factories were approved.
Cattle production in Australia.
The Japanese market is Australia’s second-largest beef market, but inflation, weak Yen and slow wage growth meant that it was sluggish last year.
Less US product availability helped Australian exporters. On the other hand, South Korea was strong in 2024 for beef, with volume up 6%, though lamb volumes were lower.
United Kingdom
MLA classifies the UK as an emerging market for Australian beef and sheepmeat exports. It describes the growth as being “remarkable, particularly considering the long-term dominance of other suppliers such as Ireland, a long-held preference for domestic product at retail and low familiarity with grain-fed beef”.
MLA highlights that UK sheepmeat imports increased for the first time in five years, largely due to increased supply from New Zealand and Australia.
The overall volume imported by the UK for 2023/24 was 60,608 tonnes, with 59% of this from New Zealand, 24% from Australia and just 11% from Ireland.
MLA projects that Australian sheepmeat is well positioned to increase exports to the UK during 2025 and beyond.
Australia exported 6,296 tonnes of beef to the UK in 2024, more than double the 2,406 tonnes exported in 2023.
Comment
While Asian and North American markets are the priority volume markets for Australian beef and sheepmeat exporters, it is their progress in Europe - the UK in particular - that will be of interest to Irish farmers.
Their progress since the signing of the trade agreement with the UK in 2023 has been spectacular, even if starting from a low base.
Australia is now the alternative main supplier of imported sheepmeat and beef volumes are also increasing, even if Australia remains a small supplier overall of UK beef imports.
With the drop in supply of UK and Irish lambs in 2024 and an abundance of Australian supply, the increased imports filled a supply deficit, as opposed to displacing either UK or Irish production.
However, if this deficit hadn’t existed, the additional Australian volumes would certainly have increased competition in the market place. This is likely to happen at some future point for either beef or sheepmeat - or indeed both.
Read more
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