This will be the first year in over a decade that there won’t be significant growth in demand from China for beef imports.

In an updated forecast released this week, USDA forecast that Chinese demand in 2023 will be 3.5m tonnes of carcase weight equivalent (CWE), the same as it was in 2022 and still the world's largest beef importer by a considerable distance, accounted for 1t in every three of beef imported.

The next largest importer of beef in 2023 will be the USA, predicted to take 1.588t CWE - up from the 1.542m tonnes forecast in January.

The USA is unique in that, as well as being the second largest importer of beef, they are also the second largest exporter.

USDA are forecasting a 20,000t increase in beef exports from the US to 1.422m tonnes CWE.

The US export primarily high-value steak cuts, while they are importers of forequarter beef for use in burger manufacture and other food service use.

The actual data for US beef exports in January and February this year showed a 9% drop to under 206,000t product weight (pw) with a 24% drop in value.

Japan is forecast to be the third largest beef importer, taking 777,000t CWE, followed by South Korea on 595,000t CWE, a reduction of 27,000t and 15,000t respectively on the USDA January forecast.

The EU is forecast by USDA to import 10,000t more beef than in its January forecast, increasing to 420,000t CWE.

The UK, Ireland’s main beef export market, is forecast to import 395,000t CWE.

Exports

Just as China dominate the market for importing beef, Brazil dominate the export market. USDA forecast that they will export one-third of all beef traded this year, with the April forecast of 3.012m tonnes CWE a 12,000t increase on the January forecast.

India will export 1.475t CWE of mainly buffalo meat to neighbouring countries, while the US are forecast to export 1.422m tonnes CWE.

Australian exports had been forecast by USDA in January to increase to 1.525m tonnes CWE, but this has been revised downwards in the April forecast to 1.4m tonnes CWE.

This is still a significant increase on the 1.239m tonnes CWE exported in 2022, reflecting the fact that the Australian cattle herd has been rebuilt following prolonged drought in 2019/20.

Argentina’s beef export forecast has, on the other hand, been revised upwards, increasing from 35,000t to 795,000t CWE - with New Zealand forecast to increase its beef exports by 15,000t to 645,000t CWE.

Comment

In the week that Minister of State, Martin Heydon TD, is in China promoting Irish beef, farmers may be wondering: has Ireland missed the boat by being excluded from that market for so long?

While it would have been preferable to be serving the market during the latter part of the growth phase, there will continue to be substantial export opportunities for Irish beef in that market.

The long-term outlook is for further growth in demand for beef from Asian markets, even if not at the rate experienced in China over the past decade.