European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is packing her case this weekend for a trip to Australia with a meeting scheduled with the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese scheduled for Tuesday.

Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefcovic is also scheduled to take part in that meeting and that suggests that the prolonged trade negotiation between the EU and Australia is nearing a conclusion. All is of course is subject to travel plans not being disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

While it is likely to be wrapped up this week, we have been here before. In October 2023 it had been expected that the deal would be done in the margins of a G7 meeting in Japan but it fell through because the level of access being offered on beef, sheepmeat, dairy and sugar wasn’t meeting Australian expectations.

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The negotiation which began in June 2018 then lay dormant until it was revived in June 2025.

Outstanding issues

As is usual with trade deals access to EU markets for agricultural products is the main sticking point. This has been the case previously with Canada and more recently Mercosur. The understanding is that the Australia – EU deal has essentially been done for years but getting agreement on the level of access for Australian beef and sheep meat has been insurmountable so far.

Australian demands

This will have been the focus of attention since the negotiations resumed in June last year and it is likely that an understanding has been reached for the Trade Commissioner and President to make the journey to Australia.

What now looks like the final push began in February when Australia’s trade Minister Don Farrell travelled to Brussels. Ahead of this Andrew McDonald, chair of the Australia-EU Red Meat Market Access Taskforce (RMMAT) spoke to the Irish Farmers Journal setting out what their industry wanted from an EU trade deal, you can read more on that here.

He said that they needed “a minimum of 50,000 tonnes carcase weight (cwt) of beef access in line with what the EU has offered our competitors.” For sheep and goat meat, he suggested that “at least a minimum of 67,000 tonnes” is required. Andrew Mc Donald said that “we are counting on Trade Minister Don Farrell and the Government to maintain their resolve and secure an outcome our industry can support.”

He also explained to the Irish Farmers Journal that their ambitions were based on what the Mercosur countries and Canada achieved in their trade deals which was 99,000 tonnes and 50,000 tonnes of beef respectively.

Comment – Looks likely this time

Given what happened previously in 2023, the Australian – EU trade deal isn’t certain until it is done but it does look inevitable this time. It wont give beef access anywhere close to the 99,000t in Mercosur and will be below the 50,000 tonnes requested by RMMAT.

However, they may come closer to their expectation for sheepmeat given that the EU have been a net importer of sheepmeat for several years.

Unlike Canada, who have used very little of their quota because they dont forsake the use of hormones to have the EU as a market option, Australia will produce to the EU specification and in time utilise their quota. They are already sending considerable volumes to the UK under a generous quota that they negotiated for that market and it will be the same with the EU.

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