Fall forecast for Argentine beef exports in 2025

After a record beef export performance of 845,000 tonnes carcase weight equivalent (cwe) in 2024, Argentina’s beef exports are forecast by USDA to drop back 9% to 770,000 tonnes cwe this year.

Last year's exceptional performance has been partially attributed to radical new policies implemented by President Milei who was elected to office at the end of 2023.

Of particular significance was his decision to lift the export ban on seven of the most popular cuts which had been excluded from exports by previous governments in an attempt to make beef more affordable in the domestic market.

Also, all Argentinian beef exports are liable for an export tariff and while this has been retained, it has been reduced from 9% to 6.75% by the new administration.

This makes Argentina unique among the major beef exporting countries and reduces the competitiveness of Argentinian beef.

Cattle numbers

Cattle numbers are forecast by USDA to fall by 400,000 at the start of 2025 to 52.37m head, compared with last year. This is being attributed to a smaller calf crop, higher slaughter rates and losses caused by three consecutive years of drought.

However so far in 2025, weather conditions are more favourable with rains replenishing pasture and by the end of 2025, USDA estimate that the cattle herd will be slightly higher at 52.77m head.

Electronic tagging was due to be introduced in 2025 but this has now been deferred until next year due to tag supply issues.

A further significant development in recent weeks for Argentinian farmers was the ending of the live cattle export ban. This had been in place since 1973 and the purpose of this was to protect supplies for beef processors.

Markets

As with neighbouring South American countries, the main export market for Argentina’s beef exports is China.

According to China customs data (supplied by Bord Bia), 594,595 tonnes (shipped weight) of beef was imported from Argentina last year, up from 526,952 tonnes the previous year.

USDA are suggesting that this may decrease as Argentina looks to increase exports to higher value markets in the US, Mexico and Israel. The US in particular has been a lucrative market for all southern hemisphere beef exporters over the past two years, and Argentina’s export volumes to the US increased by 40% last year.

Of interest to Irish beef farmers and exporters is Argentina’s presence in the EU market. Currently they have access to a 29,000 tonne Hilton quota with a preferential 20% tariff and as smaller 12,400 tonne grain fed beef quota with zero tariff which will drop to 10,000 tonnes next year. In the year to November 2024, European Commission data shows that 63,200 tonnes of beef was imported.

Comment

Argentinian beef is globally recognised as a premium product, commanding top price in retail and restaurant sectors.

The UK and EU are relatively small markets at present for Argentinian beef exports with their focus on China, the US and Middle Eastern markets. They have ambitions to develop other major Asian markets where the US, Australia and New Zealand are the main suppliers.

None of these are significant markets for Irish beef exports so direct competition between Argentinian and Irish beef is largely avoided.

What has been causing greatest concern for Irish farmers is the likelihood expansion of Argentinian exports to the EU if the Mercosur trade deal is ratified.

This would increase the share of zero tariff and low-rate quota access to the EU market, bringing it into direct competition with Irish beef in our second largest market after the UK.