Mixed story for Irish agrifood exports

Despite record high farm gate prices, the volume of Irish sheep meat exported to the end of September this year was down 12,464 tonnes, a massive 22.1% decline on the same period last year.

The rising prices meant that the fall in value was 10.5% or €34.5m. Irish dairy exports were worth €163.2m less up to the end of September, a fall of 3.4% on the same period in 2023.

The volume of dairy products exports was also down by 31,628 tonnes or 2.6%.

The best performing category in the first nine months of the year was the horticulture and cereals sector where volumes were up by 33,851 tonnes or 14.6% with value jumping by €54.3m, a massive 32.2% increase on the year before.

Exceptional growth in performance by the mushroom sector accounts for most of the extra value (€53.9m) with volume up by 12,527 tonnes.

Values down

Cereal volumes were up over 18,000 tonnes or 10.6% but values were down €3.8m or 5.8%. Pigmeat volumes and values performed strongly with a 5.5% increase in value or €19.1m matched by a 5.4% increase in volume with an extra 7,629 tonnes exported so far this year. Poultry including eggs dropped in value by €5.1m or 5.5% with volume down 903 tonnes or 1.9%. See Figure 1 for full details of Irish export values for first nine months of 2023 and 2024 and Figure 2 for volumes.

Dairy – €4.569bn 1.183m tonnes

While the value and volume of Irish dairy exports fell in the first nine months of 2024, it remains by far Ireland’s largest agrifood export category. Butter was the big price performer as despite the volume being down slightly to just over 178,000 tonnes, the value increased by over 14% to €1.112bn.

Cheese was the next highest value dairy product at €987m, a 2% increase on the previous year with volume up 2.4% to 212,875 tonnes. Infant formula volumes were up over 21,000 tonnes or 31.8% but there was a negligible increase in value. Milk powders had a difficult year with SMP volume down by almost 50,000 tonnes or 31.9 % and value fell by €148,895 while WMP was down 23,431 tonnes or 49% and value dropped by €78,920 tonnes.

Markets

Irish dairy continues to have a good spread of markets with the UK, USA and EU the big markets for high value products while African and Asian markets take more of the larger volume powder products. Markets are also influenced by an element of interindustry trading, especially through cross border trade on the island of Ireland.

In terms of stand out performances, butter sales to the US catch the eye with the value up almost €141m or 53% to the end of September at €405.7m. This will be one to watch in 2025 if incoming US president Donald Trump follows through on his campaign promise to impose tariffs on countries that have a trading deficit with the US. Butter sales to the UK were also up by €34.4m or just under 25% to €173.9m.

EU countries were the main market for cheese exports with the value up by €69.4m to €540.6m. The Netherlands was the main market, taking €244.3m of Irish cheese exports in the first nine months of 2024. Cheese export values to the US also increased substantially, up almost 21% to €81.1m while sales to the UK were flat at €323m.

African countries were the main market for milk powders, taking 9.7% more in value this year at €414.8m followed by the EU 27 taking €326.6m of Irish whole and skimmed milk powder.

Beef (ex offal) – €1.979m 364,781 tonnes

Despite the fact that Irish farm gate beef prices lag over €1/kg in the latter part of 2024, factory gate beef prices have been at record highs. The UK remains the main export market for Irish beef by a considerable distance despite volumes falling slightly as the year progressed. By the end of September, they were 1% lower at 192,715 tonnes but the higher process meant that the value was actually €30.1m or 3% higher at €1.051bn.

There was a slight increase in volumes to the EU, up 3,761 tonnes to 184, 375 tonnes in total. France is the biggest volume market on the continent for Irish beef, taking 50,718 tonnes followed by Netherlands on 32,515 tonnes.

Higher value cuts

France is also the top value EU market at €256,242m followed by Italy at €189.9m as they buy higher value cuts than Netherlands who take a greater volume of lower value beef.

With beef exports to China suspended, sales to Asia have declined though Japan is showing some promise with the value of beef exports doubling (though from a tiny base) to €9.5m. Philippines remains the largest volume export market outside Europe in 2024, taking 8,777 tonnes of lower value product, an increase of 25% on last year with the value up by one third to €23.3m.

Another market that has shown promise in 2024 is North America with Canada outperforming the US where a 25% tariff barrier disadvantages Irish beef exports compared to other suppliers. The volume exported to Canada increased by 1,473 tonnes compared with the first nine months of last year to 3,201 tonnes with the export value almost doubling to €15.7m.

Volumes exported to the US increased threefold though from a very low 680 tonnes the year before to a still low 2,240 tonnes with a value of just over €7m. The UK and EU remain the main export markets for Irish beef but 2024 has shown some promise for exports into wider global markets.

Sheep meat - €294m 43,963 tonnes

The slump in sheep meat exports, down 22.1% is probably the story of the year as despite strong farm gate prices, the numbers simply aren’t there. It is a similar picture in the UK and EU with production falling, opening the door to the UK market in particular for Australia to take advantage of the huge tariff free quota they secured in the UK–Australia trade deal.

With less volume, Irish sheep meat exports to both the UK and EU are down, both in volume and value. Volumes to the UK fell 16.2% to 10,010 tonnes with the value down €5.4m to €50.9m while sales to the EU were down 12.3% in volume to 36,426 tonnes with the value down €7.3m to €256.8m.

France remains Ireland’s top export market with a value of €109.2m in the year to September followed by Germany who have consolidated their place in second ahead of the UK on €60.9m. This puts Germany ahead of the UK having replaced them as the number two market for Irish sheep meat exports in 2022.

Pigmeat – €366.5m 48,761 tonnes

China is the highest value pigmeat market in 2024 at €80.6m despite being worth €10.1m less than last year even though the volume exported to China was up 3.7% to 48,731 tonnes.

Britain is the next highest value market, taking exports to the value €76.9m with the relatively low volume of 23,933 tonnes reflecting the fact that they buy higher value cuts. Sales to the UK including Northern Ireland were €126.8m, a 15% increase on last year.

Also of note is that pork carcase sales to the UK including Northern Ireland increased by one third this year compared with last year, rising to 24,078 tonnes of which 9,894 tonnes was cross border to Northern Ireland.

Horticulture and cereals – €234.2m 266,098 tonnes

Virtually all the exports in this category are to the UK with the mushroom sector accounting for most of the extra value of €53.9m added this year with volume up by 12,527 tonnes.

Good autumn weather combined with rising global prices made for a good finish to what had been a difficult year up to that point. The rapid expansion of Irish dairy output has ended but dairy markets improved as the year went on, increasing the value of the product we had to sell. The potential for US tariffs on imports from Ireland has to be a risk for 2025.

Beef was steady, if unspectacular, while pigmeat volumes and value both increased as did mushrooms. Worryingly, despite record farm gate prices, sheep meat volumes for export were down over 20% and this year also brought visibility to the reality of the UK-Australia trade deal with Australia exporting twice as much sheep meat to the UK as Ireland did.