US tariffs could be a disruptor to global beef trade

Irish beef producers have been riding the crest of the wave this spring with soaring beef prices.

Confidence is also strengthened by forecasted reduced cattle supplies, not just in Ireland, but in Britain and the EU as well.

Only a negligible amount of Irish beef was being sold in the US, at 1,037 tonnes up to 22 March, according to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) import data, so the extra 20% tariff won't really impact much on Irish beef exports.

Based on this, there may be a temptation to think that whatever damage US tariffs do to the wider Irish economy and in dairy with butter exports in particular plus drinks, beef should be okay.

That is true, in so far as there has been no change in trade with our main export markets, but there is some risk from the knock-on effect of President Trump’s tariffs.

This can happen because of both the impact of tariffs on the 1.4m tonnes that the US is expected to import this year and what retaliatory tariffs might be applied to US exports including beef.

Retaliatory EU tariffs won't really matter, because the EU imports so little beef from the US. In 2024, out of the 1.286m tonnes of beef exported by the US, just over 17,000 tonnes went to the EU and UK, according to US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) data.

US beef export markets

The big export markets for US beef are Japan, South Korea, Canada, China and Mexico. Canada and Mexico didn’t get a mention this week, but they were hit with a 25% tariff previously.

China has had an extra 34% added on their sales to the US, bringing their total to 54%, when the previously announced 20% tariff is added. A 25% tariff was announced for US imports from South Korea and 24% for imports from Japan.

Between them, these five countries account for over 1m tonnes of US beef exports. If they decide on retaliatory tariffs, then US beef prices - which are at an all time high - could come under some pressure if an extra tariff cost has to be absorbed.

Already there has been an issue with exports to China, with several approved US beef export factories struggling to get their export licenses to China renewed.

USMEF reports that for the week 7 to 13 March, net beef sales to China were down 92% on the four-week average. If retaliatory tariffs are introduced and the US exports less beef, then they will be likely to import less, as they consume more of their own production.

Australia is the biggest supplier of imported beef into the US and they have been given a 10% tariff, as well as Brazil, who are also a major supplier of US imported beef.

Given that cattle prices in both these countries are just over half the cost of US cattle, the industry is likely to be able to absorb the tariffs. The only concern is will the demand continue if the US is retaining more of its own production because of export difficulties.

This is where the impact could be felt by Irish beef producers and exporters. If anything reduces US demand for either Australian or Brazilian beef, the UK market becomes an attractive alternative market for both these countries and the wider EU for Brazil.

If more beef comes on to the UK market, Irish beef risks being displaced or prices could be squeezed given that both countries have much cheaper cattle.

Of course, logistics for both these countries compared with Ireland are difficult, but if they need a market, the UK is always a beef importer and an option for every exporter in the world. There will be no significant direct consequences for Irish beef producers and exporters from US tariffs, but, in time, there is some risk of indirect consequences.

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