Colm McCarthy: Brexit - something's got to give

Since their appointments in June, An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney, in their public interventions on Brexit, have displayed an increasing exasperation with the incoherence of British government policy.

Both have drawn attention to the absence of any concrete British proposals on the Irish border issue and, more generally, the failure to articulate negotiating objectives.

On the three withdrawal issues where progress is needed to trigger actual trade talks (the exit bill, the NI border and citizens’ rights), the UK negotiators seem not to have passed the test under any heading – 17 months after the referendum.

Even if sufficient progress could be reported at the December summit, permitting actual trade talks to commence, the UK government is divided on objectives: does Britain want to stay permanently close to the single market and customs union? On what terms would a transition period, extending membership in both, be agreed? Or do they willingly risk an abrupt, no-deal exit, the preference of some Brexiteers?

Clarity

Given this absence of clarity about ultimate negotiating goals, it hardly matters that the December deadline could still be met. There will be far too little time remaining to negotiate a comprehensive free trade deal since the clock runs out in March 2019.

The terms of a transition deal, which would see Britain temporarily attached to both the customs union and the single market until 2021 or later, will be highly contentious.

They would require the deferment of any restrictions on EU citizens’ access to the UK, continued jurisdiction for the European Court, ongoing payments to the EU budget and no freedom for the UK to enter new trade deals outside the EU. All four, even in a transition arrangement, are seen as red lines by Brexiteers.

Allegations

Unresolved divisions in the Conservative Party lie behind the revelations of sexual misconduct at Westminster over the last two weeks.

There have already been suspensions and ministerial resignations, based on an anonymous dossier circulated apparently from sources in the whips’ office. Some Labour misdemeanours have also come to light but most of those under suspicion are Conservatives.

Allegations include rape and sexual assault – serious criminal offences – but also the allegation that a single female cabinet minister had an affair a few years ago with a single male MP, which has not been a criminal offence since the Middle Ages.

In France, there is a privacy law and anyone circulating such an allegation would be the one committing the criminal offence.

Senior Tories deemed to be soft on Brexit have been among the more prominent targets. The knife-fight over the Tory leadership which followed David Cameron’s referendum defeat lumbers on, it would appear, and there may be more casualties.

Deflected

Meanwhile, prime minister Theresa May’s government has been deflected from the greatest challenge a UK government has faced for a generation, to which it had been devoting inadequate attention for more than a year.

The frustration of Irish politicians is reflected in mainland Europe and there has been no crack in the cohesion of the EU-27.

Something’s got to give, not least because the EU leaders will wish to avoid responsibility in the blame game that will follow a crash-out, no-deal outcome.

They may well agree to an early start on trade talks, perhaps after a British concession on the exit bill. But then what?

Unless the UK opts for arrangements which it has already ruled out, such as a Norway-type deal that would keep them in the single market, thus avoiding most non-tariff barriers, it is impossible to see a satisfactory trade deal emerging in the time available – or ever.

Customs Union

The same goes for the customs union: unless the dreams of a Global Britain enjoying better trade access outside Europe, enough to compensate for EU losses, are abandoned, the tariff barriers and customs checks are unavoidable.

The economically rational outcome would be a Norway deal on the single market and a Turkey deal on customs. Both will be denounced as betrayal by the Brexiteers and the tabloid media.

Departure

Whatever about David Cameron’s decision to abdicate responsibility for Britain’s future in Europe to the electorate, Theresa May’s despatch of the Article 50 resignation letter in March this year, before a British policy had been agreed, could well go down as the greater strategic blunder. There is no political way and there may not even be a legal way to stop the clock, so Britain departs the European Union on 29 March 2019.

The party in government cannot agree on its negotiating objectives, specifically on its desired long-term relationship with the EU-27.

The waffle about “Brexit means Brexit” or a “red, white and blue Brexit” has mercifully run out of road, only to be replaced by the Florence speech and its “deep and special partnership”, which is equally useless as a guide to negotiations.