As the early days of 2025 take shape, already we have gotten a number of reminders of how vulnerable we are as a trading nation on the side of western Europe.

When news broke last Friday that German authorities had identified a case of Foot and Mouth in water buffalo near Berlin, it sent a shudder through the industry, and reminders of the impact Foot and Mouth had on the industry in 2001 came flooding back.

The ripples from this German case are already biting here in Ireland. No Holstein bull calves being exported to the Netherlands in 2025 could be a real possibility.

In the last two years, we have sent between 80,000 and 110,000 calves to the Netherlands. The good thing about the German piece is how quickly we (Europe) were able to get a handle on what we were dealing with.

Remember, the authorities last week were testing for suspected Bluetongue when they stumbled on Foot and Mouth. Once identified, the tests were carried out to establish the strain and trace the history of stock movements.

Stock that had moved out of this region to other countries were identified and restrictions put in place.

All of this is possible because we have traceability of every animal move. In addition, it is possible because we have the science to trace the DNA of the animals and the diseases.

Now think of the recent Mercosur deal and the possibility of additional trade from South American countries, where the EU has clearly identified they can’t guarantee that imported meat will follow the same traceability and health guidelines.

The chain is only as good as the weakest link – anything that brings vulnerability risks undermining everything else. So the track, trace, DNA-based science works. Now think of this in the context of TB.

We can track but there are breaks in the chain. We can trace but again there are chinks in the armour.

We haven’t moved to DNA-based science and are working with a skin test that we know has weaknesses.

Change needed

As Dr June Fanning, the Department of Agriculture’s chief veterinary officer describes, unfortunately TB eradication is one area where trends are going in the wrong direction and where change is needed.

It’s the very same in Northern Ireland, and just before Christmas, the DAERA chief vet Dr Brian Dooher outlined a similar challenge facing the industry in NI.

Disease levels are the highest in nearly 20 years. This week, we learned in the Republic of Ireland, overall exchequer expenditure on the TB programme in 2024 amounted to over €100m.

This is in addition to farmers’ own expenditure on TB testing. In Northern Ireland, the cost is £60m (€71m).

So when all is said and done, we are spending €170m on the island trying to eradicateTB, on top of lost output and further on-farm cost while the numbers are going the wrong way.

Clearly we are beyond a point where we have to ask ourselves whether the investment that both taxpayers and farmers are putting into the current programme is as effective as it can be, or whether we need to do something differently.

Can science help? Can we trace the disease better with more widespread use of DNA-based testing or whole genome testing that is happening sporadically?

Long-term breeding is discussed as a part of a new solution, but that might be better used by the AI stations to rule out these ‘TB’ sires rather than a farmer tool. Farmers have enough to do.

It would be naïve to think that culling badgers is the single issue that is going to solve bovine TB, but at the same time we can’t let our fear of not doing what is right for domesticated or wild animals stop progress.

Post-restriction and depopulation, farmers are re-introducing animals back into herds that may continue to harbour disease, and areas where wildlife reservoirs of the disease continue to exist. It simply doesn’t make sense.

The key initial challenge North and South is to get disease rates down in both cattle and wildlife. Continuing to do what we have been doing is simply not an option.