Farmers are almost too scared to say it. Whisper it... beef price has never been as good... The experts say we haven’t got enough of it. The narrative that people are moving away from meat was clearly dispelled by GIRA Consultant Rupert Claxton at the annual Bord Bia meat industry gathering last Friday. The economic consultant said: “The world wants more meat.”

The renowned global consultant went as far as putting a number on it. Firstly, he said on average given what the team of experts at GIRA knows, meat consumption will increase 1.2% per year across all meats over the next five years.

He estimated poultry meat consumption will lead the charge, increasing by 2.3% per year, lamb will be up 1.4% and beef will be up just shy of 1% per year.

Secondly, he said that the beef price is up 40% on 2013. Thirdly, on supply, in the traditional beef-producing areas of the world there are less cows. All three of these issues are fundamental drivers of Irish suckler farmers’ income and livelihoods – demand is up, the price is up significantly and supply is on the floor. In the past if one of these was positive it was enough to keep the flame for beef and sucklers alive.

However, the balancing narrative is farm costs have risen to the same extent as price, and even more for some inputs. Secondly, global demand numbers are fine, but the UK and EU markets will always be the more important markets for Irish beef. Both of these markets are vulnerable.

The UK has already opened up and the EU is seeking approval for an agreement with a trading block that lacks the necessary regulatory framework and undermines the very fundamentals of the EU.

It also completely exacerbates the efforts and stress-related factors that farmers hurdle on a day-to-day basis in terms of inspections and paperwork.

So where does that leave us in the short-term? The positivity is winning out at the moment. Traditional beef producing areas just don’t have the cows. The EU cow herd will be down, the Brazilian herd will be down, the drought in the US will keep North American numbers down for 2025 and 2026, according to GIRA. China has increased its herd, but it’s proving unprofitable, so the expectation is the herd will readjust downwards in 2025.

We do, however, have to recognise the muscle of the beef superpowers when they put their minds to exporting: Brazil and Australia, who have been the big two export growth areas on a global scale. In 2022, Brazil exported 2.7m tonnes of beef and in 2025 GIRA forecasts it will shift 3.4m tonnes – that’s a 700m tonne shift upwards in less than three years.

Most of that extra product went to China – a 49% increase in beef to China. This would obviously cover over the cracks in any Mercosur deal in the short-term. What will happen when China reaches its targets on self-sufficiency in beef?

In the same way Australian exports have boomed. While it doesn’t have the scale of the Brazilian beef industry, it too is expected to have lifted exports of beef by 700m tonnes, in three years, by the close of business in 2025 to 1.8m tonnes of beef exported.

Long story short – the UK market is at 64% self-sufficiency and is expected to rise to only 66% by 2029.

In addition Bord Bia’s Mark Zieg suggests there is an increasing demand for product in the UK with fewer consumers worried about going for cheaper cuts.

IFA livestock chair Declan Hanrahan said this week with predictions of 87,000 fewer cattle available for processing and exports flying, factories will be hard set to fill contracts. With R-grading cattle making €7.06/kg in the UK and base prices here at €6.00/kg and flat prices of €6.45/kg offered, there is room for further increases.

The beef boom is back.