There are three seats each in Cork South West and in Cork North West. Can Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael retain the three seats shared in North West since 1981? Former Fianna Fáil agriculture spokesperson Michael Moynihan and namesake and party colleague Aindrias will be defending their seats.
Fine Gael’s Michael Creed, a cousin of the former agriculture minister, and John Paul O’Shea will be targeting a seat each.
The closest challenger to the duopoly in 2020 was Becky Kealy of Aontú, who stands again.
While Cork South West, traditionally a Fine Gael heartland, is still ‘Collins country’, the Michael Collins in question today is the Independent Ireland leader. He’s likely to again top the poll.
Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns was a shock seat-winner last time out, but this time is a high-profile party leader.
Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan, the third outgoing TD, sits in the middle of the constituency.
Fine Gael will be desperate to regain a seat, and has Senator Tim Lombard, dairy farmer and party agriculture spokesperson in the Seanad, in the east, with Cllr Noel O’Donovan in Clonakilty. Sinn Féin’s Claire O’Callaghan is an outsider.
It will be a battle royale for the final two seats.
Charlie McConalogue’s home constituency will be keenly contested. Fianna Fáil is likely to hold a seat, but will it be the agriculture minister or running mate Pat the Cope Gallagher? Sinn Féin’s national vote may fall, but it is set to retain two seats in Donegal through Pearse Doherty and one of Padraig MacLochlainn or Noel Jordan. Fine Gael is not fancied, having had a dismal local elections in the county. With Joe McHugh’s defection, they field councillors Nikki Bradley and John McNulty.
Thomas Pringle is a popular, hard-working left-leaning independent.
The main threat to him could be the 100% Redress candidate Charles Ward. Despite the mica controversy, the Government is likely to retain one seat in Donegal.
This is another Sinn Féin stronghold. Matt Carthy will lead the way, with Pauline Tully also set for re-election. Could they challenge a third seat?
Only if both Government parties have a bad day.
Fianna Fáil has former agriculture minister Brendan Smith and fellow outgoing TD Niamh Smyth, who famously chaired the RTÉ hearings.
Fine Gael, in contrast, is running three candidates to defend Heather Humphreys’ seat, and will expect to get one of TP O’Reilly (last man standing in 2020), Carmel Brady and David Maxwell home.
Keep an eye on Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly.
James Browne will retain a seat from Fianna Fáil, while Verona Murphy has retained her south-of-county heartland. George Lawlor will hope to succeed Brendan Howlin for Labour, whose Wexford town base is similarly intact, while Johnny Mythen will hope to retain his seat for Sinn Féin. Cathal Byrne and Bridín Murphy share the Fine Gael ticket, and transfers will need to be solid to elect one of them. Add in local election poll-topper Jim Codd of Aontú, newly independent councillor Michael Sheehan and that’s eight candidates for four seats. Mick Wallace has yet to show his hand. He could run here, or perhaps in Wexford/Wicklow – he’s a proven vote-getter.
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