The 25% targeted reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is now achievable based on reduced stock numbers coupled with high adoption rates of mitigation measures, Teagasc has found. A significant, continued drop in suckler cow numbers means overall stock numbers will decline in Ireland for the next seven years, according to the latest estimates from Teagasc.
When predicting stock numbers to 2030, Teagasc is saying that the most likely scenario is a small cumulative growth in dairy cow numbers, 8% relative to 2022, but a significant, almost 30% reduction, in suckler cow numbers over the period.
While Teagasc expects that suckler cow numbers will decline by 30%, it has also modelled scenarios which show a steeper suckler cow reduction (-43%), but also a slower (-16%) suckler cow reduction.
Couple these numbers with high or low adoption of mitigation strategies, and you start to see how farming may or may not reach targets for emissions reductions. The Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC), which was launched this week, identifies the most cost-effective pathway to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance carbon sequestration. This is the third update to the MACC, with previous versions published in 2012 and 2018. In contrast to previous MACC analyses, linear rate of uptake for all measures was not assumed.
The uptake rate has been tailored for individual measures. Measures already being adopted, such as low-emission slurry spreading, were assumed to be taken up more rapidly, whilst those still under development, such as animal feed additives, were assumed to start slowly and have accelerated rates of uptake in later years.
In line with EU ambition, Ireland has committed to achieving the following: a reduction of 51% in overall GHG emissions from 2021 to 2030 based on 2018 levels, and achieving climate neutrality no later than 2050. These legally binding objectives are set out in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2021. In 2022, a 25% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 2018 levels was set for the Irish agriculture sector by 2030.
What drives change?
Spreading less artificial nitrogen and changing the type of nitrogen used is central to reducing nitrous oxide. Using more clover and achieving better soil fertility are also key. Teagasc says both of these measures can reduce fertiliser use to between 322,590t nitrogen (N) with high adoption, and 285,727t N using slower adoption rates by 2030.
On the methane side of the house, reducing the age at finishing could lower emissions in 2030 – equivalent to a reduction of average finishing age by two to three months, depending on what adoption rate is used. The Economic Breeding Index (EBI) and feed additives will continue to deliver gas reductions.
Teagasc also says diversification into organic farming, forestry and biomethane production could reduce emissions. Better manure management using additives and aeration could also help reduce emissions.
Difference compared to the last MACC
1. Animal number projections have been updated to 2030. A small decline in the overall bovine herd size is projected. 2. The agricultural efficiency measures have been separated from those measures that will reduce the absolute emissions.3. New measures have been added, including age at slaughter, feed additives, and diversification. Some existing measures are adjusted, such as EBI.4. Two adoption pathway rates for GHG mitigation measures have been established, along with three possible scenarios for how animal numbers might evolve.
The 25% targeted reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is now achievable based on reduced stock numbers coupled with high adoption rates of mitigation measures, Teagasc has found. A significant, continued drop in suckler cow numbers means overall stock numbers will decline in Ireland for the next seven years, according to the latest estimates from Teagasc.
When predicting stock numbers to 2030, Teagasc is saying that the most likely scenario is a small cumulative growth in dairy cow numbers, 8% relative to 2022, but a significant, almost 30% reduction, in suckler cow numbers over the period.
While Teagasc expects that suckler cow numbers will decline by 30%, it has also modelled scenarios which show a steeper suckler cow reduction (-43%), but also a slower (-16%) suckler cow reduction.
Couple these numbers with high or low adoption of mitigation strategies, and you start to see how farming may or may not reach targets for emissions reductions. The Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC), which was launched this week, identifies the most cost-effective pathway to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance carbon sequestration. This is the third update to the MACC, with previous versions published in 2012 and 2018. In contrast to previous MACC analyses, linear rate of uptake for all measures was not assumed.
The uptake rate has been tailored for individual measures. Measures already being adopted, such as low-emission slurry spreading, were assumed to be taken up more rapidly, whilst those still under development, such as animal feed additives, were assumed to start slowly and have accelerated rates of uptake in later years.
In line with EU ambition, Ireland has committed to achieving the following: a reduction of 51% in overall GHG emissions from 2021 to 2030 based on 2018 levels, and achieving climate neutrality no later than 2050. These legally binding objectives are set out in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2021. In 2022, a 25% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 2018 levels was set for the Irish agriculture sector by 2030.
What drives change?
Spreading less artificial nitrogen and changing the type of nitrogen used is central to reducing nitrous oxide. Using more clover and achieving better soil fertility are also key. Teagasc says both of these measures can reduce fertiliser use to between 322,590t nitrogen (N) with high adoption, and 285,727t N using slower adoption rates by 2030.
On the methane side of the house, reducing the age at finishing could lower emissions in 2030 – equivalent to a reduction of average finishing age by two to three months, depending on what adoption rate is used. The Economic Breeding Index (EBI) and feed additives will continue to deliver gas reductions.
Teagasc also says diversification into organic farming, forestry and biomethane production could reduce emissions. Better manure management using additives and aeration could also help reduce emissions.
Difference compared to the last MACC
1. Animal number projections have been updated to 2030. A small decline in the overall bovine herd size is projected. 2. The agricultural efficiency measures have been separated from those measures that will reduce the absolute emissions.3. New measures have been added, including age at slaughter, feed additives, and diversification. Some existing measures are adjusted, such as EBI.4. Two adoption pathway rates for GHG mitigation measures have been established, along with three possible scenarios for how animal numbers might evolve. 
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