As the news filters through that most of Ireland is set to lose its nitrates derogation as it currently stands, farmer anger is growing.

Getting to this point has been a classic example of a failure of politics, and the blame for this must lie with the Government.

Let’s go back to the start. When the EU Commission granted Ireland the derogation in March 2022, the Government issued a press release welcoming the news.

It kept it a secret the fact that the terms and conditions included a mid-term review based on water quality trends and that if the results didn’t satisfy the Commission, the derogation would drop to 220kg N/ha.

The first of any public mention of a mid-term review was when the Irish Farmers Journal broke the story in June 2022.

Mid-term review impacts

Over the last 12 months, there has been a huge effort by farming organisations and industry bodies to highlight the inherent problems with the mid-term review and a cut to stocking rate.

Information meetings were held, politicians were briefed and farmers were informed of the impact of the changes.

In March, Teagasc published a new report on the impacts of a reduction in stocking rate from 250kg to 220kg on nitrate leaching and dairy farm economics.

It found that farm profits would fall by 16%, with only a negligible impact on water quality. It stated that when banding is taken into account, profits would fall by 29% in the most extreme cases.

Teagasc asked to 'delay' report by DAFM

It subsequently emerged that the Department of Agriculture requested Teagasc to delay publication of the report until after banding was introduced.

Then, in late March, the Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue said in the Seanad that he is “preparing a case to engage further with the European Commission to see if we can get further flexibility around time to show improvements around water quality”.

The Irish Farmers Journal has asked the Department of Agriculture if a case was ever put forward to the Commission. Even if it was made, it was clearly unsuccessful.

Report

The EPA report, which the Department of Agriculture sent to the European Commission on Friday 30 June, is extremely interesting.

River catchments in which we have been told for years are overloaded with nitrates will remain at 250kg N/ha of an organic stocking rate. These include the Blackwater Valley, Timoleague catchment and most of west Cork, plus the Slaney catchment in Wexford.

Meanwhile, catchments in parts of Clare, Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo, Leitrim and so on are to be restricted to 220kg N/ha, as are most of the other intensive dairy counties in Leinster and Munster.

How this will be implemented on a catchment-by-catchment basis is unknown.

If a farmer has part of their holding in one catchment and part of their holding in another catchment with a different stocking rate, what stocking rate will they use?

There are lots of questions to be answered, with the main one being how scientifically robust the EPA report is.

The fact is, river nitrate quality is improving and improving quite quickly. Looking back over the EPA indicator reports over the last number of years, the percentage of rivers with unsatisfactory nitrate levels was 47% between 2018 and 2020.

This fell to 43% between 2019 and 2021, and it fell to 40% between 2020 and 2022. The EPA reports break rivers down into percentages of high quality, good quality and unsatisfactory quality for nitrates.

Based on these trends continuing at the same rate, just 26% of rivers will be unsatisfactory for nitrate quality by 2030.

However, given the new measures being introduced in terms of banding, reduction in chemical fertiliser spreading rates, fertiliser register and longer closed periods for slurry spreading, one could assume that the rate of progress in reducing nitrate pollution will actually increase.

That is, before and without a reduction in stocking rate is factored in, which the science says will have a negligible impact on water quality - but a substantial impact on farm profit.

Push up land price

It is also likely to continue to push up the price of land, as dairy farmers will scramble to secure additional land to avoid having to cull cows to comply with the new measures.

What impact this will have on the tillage sector remains to be seen. Tillage farmers competed with dairy farmers for land in 2023, but with a huge drop in tillage margins expected this year, will they be able to compete next year?

Conservative analysis by the Irish Farmers Association found that the change is likely to directly impact over 3,200 dairy farmers, resulting in a reduction in cow numbers of 16 cows/farm - or almost 52,000 cows in the national herd.

To the onlooker, it seems that this Government is getting its cow cull, but by the back door and without any compensation for the loss of profit it’ll create for farmers.