Grain prices were largely flat last week, but then increased on the back of reduced wheat production forecasts for Russia and Europe, reducing the forecast global surplus.

However, the production forecast is still at record levels, so the situation may need to disimprove further to give more support to market sentiment, as prices fell again at the start of this week.

Projections for the US maize output remain influential for overall market direction. These change every few days, but this issue will firm up considerably following the August USDA report and this will influence the direction of future travel.

Chicago prices increased last week on the back of hotter and drier weather there, but this is being counteracted by maize production in South America.

Global wheat production for 2019/20 was reduced by 9.4Mt in the most recent WASDE report. Russian wheat production was lowered by 3.8Mt to 74.2Mt and European production was forecast down 2.5Mt month on month to 151.3Mt following the recent heatwave.

EU oilseed rape prices continue to firm with the market continuing to tighten. Yields are lower than expected. Some of this is a direct consequence of pest damage arising from the ban on neonicotinoids. Native physical prices depend on position. Spot wheat is down to around €188/t, with barley taking on new-crop price levels of around €170/t. November prices are more static with wheat floating around €182 to €185/t and barley around €175/t.