Futures grain markets experienced significant weakening over the past week.

December wheat contracts dropped by over €50/t off peak, having closed at €385.75/t on Tuesday night. But there is still a lot of price movement both ways.

It would seem that efforts to open up shipping corridors out of Ukraine were a major driver of the weakening sentiment, yet it seems unlikely that either party can agree to the suggested proposals. Still, talk spells hope that something may happen, as the timeframe is tightening.

The grains that had been due to be exported, plus the disruption to internal movement and usage, are now occupying stores that will be needed for the 2022 harvest, which will commence relatively soon.

It is estimated that this amounts to about 26Mt of storage capacity (grains and oilseeds) and if these are not freed up, there may not be adequate storage for the coming harvest. Storage capacity in Ukraine was made all the more important by a recent announcement from the Ukrainian agricultural ministry.

This reported that the sowing of spring crops was almost complete, with overall area expected to be down 22% on last year.

Official data stated that they had drilled 4.4m ha of maize, 928,000ha of spring barley and 189,000ha of spring wheat.

The ministry had previously stated that the expected spring cropping area would be 14.2m ha, but this may have finished somewhat lower.

Even closer to home, FranceAgriMer reported a deterioration in the French wheat crop again last Friday for the third successive week.

Dry conditions during spring followed by very hot weather in recent weeks, have left only 69% of the crop now rated as good to excellent, down from 73% in the previous week.

Meanwhile, there was significant recent progress in US maize plantings, but concerns are growing for the yield potential of the last 5% to 10% of the crop.

When planting is delayed until June, there are real fears that it may not be planted at all and this could have a significant impact on US maize output.

Native prices

Native prices follow the weaker tone of international markets, but the overall drop is much lower than in futures markets.

Nearby wheat and barley mirror imported prices at around €415/t, with imported maize now down at €375/t.

New-crop wheat is now around €385 to €390/t, with barley ranging from €370 to €380/t, depending on the day and the hour. Imported maize for November is currently quoted at €365/t.