A crunch debate on the Executive’s climate change bill is on a knife-edge at Stormont, with emissions reductions targets likely to come down to votes by just a handful of MLAs.

The SDLP is seen as the key player, as most other political parties have already set out their stalls.

Sinn Féin, Alliance and the Green Party are supporting amendments for more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The Green Party wants net zero by 2045, whereas Sinn Féin and Alliance are aiming for 100% reduction in emissions and net zero, both by 2050.

Analysis by consultancy firm KPMG found that a net-zero target would require an 86% cut in cattle and sheep numbers in NI. It would also put 98% of beef and sheep farmers in less favoured areas out of business.

The net-zero targets also go against expert advice from the UK government’s Climate Change Committee (CCC), which recommends that NI cuts emissions by at least 82% by 2050.

The CCC’s target is the basis of the Executive’s climate change bill, which is backed by both the DUP and the Ulster Unionist Party.

The SDLP was still holding meetings on Tuesday to discuss how its MLAs will vote.

Free vote

Speaking to the Irish Farmers Journal, the SDLP’s Justin McNulty said it was still not decided if the party’s MLAs would be whipped into voting a certain way or if they would get a free vote.

“We are still having discussions. There is a major, major strength of feeling within the party on this issue,” he said.

The numbers are extremely tight and the likes of independent unionist MLA Claire Sugden could prove vital in getting the 82% target over the line.

Rebels within the main parties could also swing votes. For example, outgoing DUP MLA Jim Wells addressed a small group of environmental campaigners at Stormont on Tuesday and has voiced his support for net-zero targets.