Reduced numbers of breeding sheep across Europe is likely to underpin the lamb market for the remainder of the year, the chief executive of the Livestock and Meat Commission (LMC) has said.

“Tight supplies has to result in a positive outlook for us,” Colin Smith told farmers attending an EasyCare sheep event on the farm of Campbell Tweed outside Cairncastle, Co Antrim, last Thursday evening.

During his presentation, Smith pointed out that of the NI-produced lambs slaughtered here or in the Republic of Ireland, 25% end up in the UK market, with 75% going to the EU.

To date in 2024, total NI production of hoggets and lambs for slaughter is down 2.6%.

Within that, slaughterings at NI abattoirs are down 15%, although that big decrease is partially offset by a 9% rise in live exports going to ROI for direct slaughter.

There has also been the emergence of a new dynamic in the market in 2024, with English buyers at NI marts, helping to put a strong floor in prices. To 20 July, nearly 10,000 hoggets and lambs have been sent for direct slaughter in Britain, compared to only 280 in the same period in 2023.

That demand from England has been driven by tight supplies, with the UK sheep breeding flock hitting a record-low of 13.8m last December, down 4.3% on the previous year, said Smith. In ROI, breeding ewe numbers last December were down 3.7% to 2.56m, with a similar picture emerging across many major sheep-producing countries in Europe – two of Europe’s largest producers, Spain and Greece, have seen slaughterings fall 10% this year. The EU Commission is forecasting a drop in production of 5% across all of 2024.

According to Smith, there are various factors behind the lower numbers, including the age profile of farmers, access to labour, policy changes and costs of production.

Peak

Tight numbers led to high prices across Europe in the first half of the year, with hogget prices in NI peaking at a new record high of 812p/kg at the end of April.

Higher prices are expected to take 3.5% off EU consumption in 2024 as consumers look to switch to cheaper protein sources. However, the market is generally robust, with “opportunities” on the back of religious and cultural events, said Smith.

NI consumers

At local level, he maintained demand remains strong, with 90% of consumers eating red meat: “It is not going down. There is no increase in NI consumers wanting to be vegan or vegetarian.”

Research measuring methane output from sheep

A significant amount of work has been done in the Republic of Ireland to accurately measure methane output from sheep, Teagasc sheep technologist, Eoin Dunne told farmers attending the EasyCare open evening on the Tweed farm.

Methane released during ruminant digestion is a potent greenhouse gas and currently accounts for around two-thirds of total agriculture emissions in NI.

Summarising the work south of the Irish border, Dunne said the aim was to establish accurate baseline measures for the methane output of sheep kept in typical pasture-based systems.

Studies have also looked at the link between genetics and methane output. Some sheep will produce less methane per kg of liveweight gain than others, and with methane a heritable trait, this attribute can be passed from one generation to the next. In 2023, a new breeding value for methane was included in the performance-recording programme run by Sheep Ireland and it is expected that €uro-Star ratings will soon be made available for individual animals.

Underpinning the research on methane from sheep are “thousands of data points” taken across various studies that have used Portable Accumulation Chambers (PAC) said Dunne.

A PAC is an aluminium box which can be utilised on-farm and into which an individual sheep is placed for 50 minutes. Methane, oxygen and carbon dioxide are measured, allowing researchers to identify high and low methane-emitting sheep.

“Our work has shown there is not a big difference in methane output between breeds, but there is a big difference within breeds,” said Dunne. It means there is significant scope for all breeds to lower methane output by focusing on animal genetics.