'National' suckler herd already hitting reduced emissions targets

The debate continues on what farmers need to do to meet our 25% emission reduction target.

Both the Government and farm organisations have shied away from looking at each sector on an individual basis for fear of causing divisions between sectors.

The reality is that the suckler sector, if taken as a separate sector, has very little to do to meet its emissions targets yet it is the sector that is being asked to do the most over the next eight years in order to meet our targets.

The Irish suckler herd has been contracting by about 3.5% over the last number of years.

Our analysis takes 2018 as a baseline year as that’s the year that the Government has taken for its calculations. In fact, the national suckler herd has been reducing since 2015 so there have already been gains made that won’t be counted.

FAPRI analysis included in the Food Vision beef and sheep report has forecast suckler numbers, if they continue on the current trend, to end up somewhere around 650,000 suckler cows in 2030, a reduction of about 300,000 sucklers based on the current figure of about 950,000 cows.

Incidentally, the dairy herd is forecast to grow by 300,000 cows over the next eight years.

The overall target is to reduce our emissions by 5.75 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide Co2 equivalent by 2030.

Figure 1 shows that the suckler sector through reduced numbers will have contributed 1.07Mt of CO2 equivalent.

This is before any reduction is taken off for improved breeding in the national suckler herd through programmes like the Beef Data and Genomics Programme (BDGP).

Better genetics and efficiency within the suckler herd could reap further reductions on top of the 1.07Mt reduction through less suckler cows.

It’s important to remember that these figures are before any exit or reduction scheme is introduced by the Government. So, what’s the problem I hear you ask? The problem is that the dairy herd is going up by 300,000 cows in the next eight years and that cancels out the reduced suckler numbers.

The Irish suckler herd has reduced its emissions by 13% from 2018 to 2022 based on reduced numbers and better genetics and is on a pathway to reduce its total emissions by a further 33% by 2030.

Better genetics, through the existing BDGP, is expected to deliver an additional 0.1Mt reduction, on top of the 1.07Mt calculated from Table 1. This has already started, with the BDGP now delivering better outcomes regarding key performance indicators such as calves/cow/year and weanling efficiency, without any loss in carcase performance.

Work presented in the Climate Action Plan has indicated that the rate of gain in GHG mitigation could be increased to 0.2-0.3Mt, through placing additional emphasis on GHG mitigation traits, such as earlier finishing age and direct selection for lower methane-emitting animals.

Initial work from ICBF undertaken by ICBF and Teagasc on these two new traits has indicated very promising outcomes, with an expectation that these improvements could be introduced into the replacement and terminal indexes later this year, in line with the commencement of the new Suckler Cow Efficiency Programme (SCEP).

Aside from the suckler reduction and exit scheme, the early finishing target has generated the most discussion. When early slaughtering was first suggested as a measure to reduce our emissions, a reduction in the average slaughter age from 27 months to 24 months, there was some concern that the 24 months would mean a move to shed-based finishing.

Processors are already encouraging earlier slaughter through various programmes

However, it was explained that moving 100,000 cattle from an end of third grazing season finish to an end of second grazing season finish, along with shaving a month off the slaughter age of 500,000 cattle would deliver .41 MtCO2eq.

This was embraced by many in the industry as being achievable.

Processors are already encouraging earlier slaughter through various programmes.

Farm organisations have also been lobbying for a Government-funded early slaughter premium. The problem is that in the latest published Climate Action Plan, the goalposts have changed to an average age of 22 to 23 months. This new target is a massive shift and has massive implications for the national kill profile.

If we look ahead to 2030, we are forecast to have 1.7m dairy cows, with the majority of cows calving across a very condensed period of the spring. That means these animals will hit 22 to 23 months from January to March.

Sexed semen use will mean that approximately one million dairy-beef animals will be available for slaughter over a short timeframe if the target is 22 to 23 months.

Beef isn’t like milk. You can’t dry it and sell it later in the year

This will mean we will be concentrating most of our animals to be slaughtered in December to March, some of the highest cost months to finish cattle in the year. This could see our weekly kill peak at 58,000 head in January each year, which would decimate price and prove a real challenge for factories to market the product.

Beef isn’t like milk. You can’t dry it and sell it later in the year. You can freeze it but this devalues the product, resulting in a lower price paid to the farmer.

While the targets outlined in the plan are scientifically achievable and will result in reduced emissions from livestock, more thought is needed on the wider consequences and the economic impact that hitting the target will have on the national kill profile and, more importantly, farmers’ pockets.