Will tanks and bombs blow the CAP budget?

With the US indicating an unwillingness to continue to support Ukraine, it may fall to Europe to help keep Russia's invaders at bay. It may come at the cost of badly needed extra CAP funding.

The Dealer

26 February 2025

Will tanks and bombs blow the CAP budget?

It’s only a week since Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen outlined his broad vision for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), but already it feels as if the sands have shifted. Monday marked the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it is becoming clear that if the sovereignty of Ukraine is to be maintained for much longer, Europe will have to step up the level of support it offers. The US has made clear the Biden administration’s unconditional support for the Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government is in the past.

It’s only a week since Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen outlined his broad vision for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), but already it feels as if the sands have shifted.

Monday marked the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it is becoming clear that if the sovereignty of Ukraine is to be maintained for much longer, Europe will have to step up the level of support it offers. The US has made clear the Biden administration’s unconditional support for the Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government is in the past.

Donald Trump is basically demanding most of Ukraine’s lunch money in exchange for the continuation of military support, in the form of half a trillion’s worth of rare earth minerals.

It seems excessive. US military aid under the Biden administration totalled €66.15bn, with a further €45bn in financial aid. Trump is effectively looking for a tenfold payment in return. It has to be remembered that all of the aid in the form of weaponry has also helped keep the US’s giant military-industrial complex chugging along.

The European Union has, for it’s part, forwarded about €132bn in military and financial support over the last three years. That figure is only likely to increase in the year ahead.

If we round out total annual aid at €45bn a year, we see just how significant a demand on the EU’s budget this conflict is.

For comparison, the current CAP budget is €387bn over the seven years from 2021-2027 inclusive, which averages at slightly over €55bn. In addition, the EU collectively, and member states individually, must increase their own spend on security.

Defence minister Simon Harris spoke at the weekend of a doubling of our defence budget to €3bn a year.

Of course, it isn’t an either/or situation. The EU has a strategic interest and a moral obligation in supporting Ukraine. It also has a strategic and economic interest in ensuring that the EU is self-sufficient in terms of food production. And there is a moral imperative that Europe helps to feed not only itself but also the world.

Hansen’s ambition is for an expansion in CAP funds, so it can meet the twin challenges of maintaining food output while protecting the natural world. It’s needed, but will Europe have the financial resources to meet this ambition while conflict rages on it’s borders?