Opinion: 10 takeaways from day one of the general election count

1. Big three locked together

Only two constituencies are yet to return first counts, but only 41 seats have been filled among the 43 constituencies across the country, despite some of them having reached fifth and six counts.

Our system of election requires patience from candidates, voters and pundits alike.

The fact that Cavan-Monaghan and Kildare North could not deliver even a first count after an entire day of counting isn’t great and means we don’t yet have a national party first preference percentage to pore over.

However, Fianna Fáil will have the highest number of votes when all is said and done, hitting almost 22%, one percentage point ahead of Fine Gael.

Sinn Féin’s large vote in Cavan-Monaghan may mean that will probably exceed 19%. The big three are locked closely together in public opinion.

2. Sinn Féin's remarkable recovery

It’s a remarkable recovery by Sinn Féin following the disappointing showing in the local and European elections, which took place less than six months ago.

They secured less than 12% in the locals and barely over 11% in the vote to elect MEPs.

It mirrors what happened in 2020, when the party rebounded from a poor performance in the 2019 local and European votes to become the party with the largest first preference vote.

In fairness, it’s something I predicted was likely to happen when reviewing the fallout from June’s election results.

The correlation between lower turnout in the local and European elections and Sinn Féin’s lower vote seemed close and so it has proven again.

3. Vote for change?

But does that mean it’s fair to describe this election result - or what we can see of it so far - as a vote for change?

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will both see their vote drop slightly from 2020, but Sinn Féin’s will be down by 5%.

It’s hardly a collapse in support for the two parties who have dominated Irish politics for a century. It’s less a vote for change, more a vote for change the minor party.

4. Awful day for the greens

For the Green Party, they have had an awful day. Their first preference vote has fallen from 7.1% to 3.1% (with the caveat of the Kildare North and Cavan-Monaghan constituencies still to report).

They are in a fight to retain any of their 12 seats and may be without representation in the next Dáil.

It’s a familiar take for minor coalition partners - one Labour, the Progressive Democrats, Democratic Left (no relation) and indeed the 2007-11 Green Party themselves could have recounted.

The public often punishes the smaller party, while returning the larger one, or two as is now the case.

5. No fun in opposition

So why would anyone want to go into government as the minor party? Well, the smart but genuine answer is it isn’t much fun being a minor party in opposition.

In government, you may face the ire of the public, but there is the opportunity to get things done, issues you went into politics to advance in the first place.

It’s true that there are some parties that are ideologically opposed to one or both of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and would not go into coalition with them.

Aontú and People Before Profit have openly stated as much.

Current projections suggest a left-leaning government led by Sinn Féin won’t be possible; there just won’t be enough seats filled by left-of-centre TDs.

So, unless Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin form an administration together, it’s going to be Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and others.

6. Independent Ireland ones to watch

Independent Ireland may be the ones to watch.

They have been ignored by most pollsters in the lead-up to this election and simply lumped in with independents, with the honourable exception of the Irish Farmers Journal poll, which saw them at 10%.

They were never likely to garner that level of support among the wider public, but have gained 3.6% of first preference votes, only 0.2% behind the Social Democrats.

They already have their three outgoing TDs safely reelected and have prospects in Cork North, Galway West and Sligo-Leitrim, so might double their representation.

Six TDs may not be enough to form a decent working majority alongside Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who will want some comfort in case one or more of this new party start to question their support on less popular legislation.

Independent Ireland have an unorthodox approach to the use of the whip for Irish politics. They say they will use the whip on matters agreed in the programme for government and in supporting the budget as agreed by government each year, but will allow a free vote on other matters.

This will make Micheál Martin and Simon Harris nervous, so they would want in excess of 90 TDs in government parties.

7. Independents to join ranks?

There is one possible development. Some TDs who have been elected as independent candidates may well join the ranks of Independent Ireland, putting on the less restrictive straitjacket involved.

Keep a close ear to what the likes of Kevin Boxer Moran and Sean Canney say over the coming days.

Both have previously been in government, both may want to serve there again.

Other independents such as Carol Nolan and Gillian Toole (should she be elected) could potentially be interested.

The key will be for Independent Ireland to keep the wingspan of the party away from what might be called far-right.

That would make it hard for a major party to form a government with them.

8. We need to talk about Gerry

We need to talk about Gerry Hutch. He may or may not be elected in Dublin Central, but his strong showing is attracting attention from the international media.

For decades, the narrative has been that he has strong links to organised crime.

In this election, he has presented himself as a community activist and he has received strong support.

Before Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil supporters do any sniggering about the fact that he received a higher proportion of transfers from the surplus of Mary Lou McDonald, they need to realise two things.

Firstly, those votes were transferred into the Sinn Féin leader's pile (see Saturday’s brief explainer here) and not first preference votes for her.

Secondly, it may be that Hutch also attracts transfers from Paschal Donohoe’s surplus and from Mary Fitzpatrick of Fianna Fáil’s transfers if she is eliminated.

Dublin’s inner city has long been one of the most economically and socially disadvantaged areas in the entire country.

This is an expression of many things and to dismiss it as a vote for a person who has a high media profile as a glamorous gangster (an oxymoron, I know) might be missing the point entirely.

9. No far-right rise

While the implications of Gerry Hutch’s strong showing need to be contemplated and discussed, there has been no rise of the far-right in this election.

Across Europe, far-right politicians have gained some spectacular successes, not least in Romania’s presidential election last weekend.

Donald Trump may deny he is on the far-right, but some of the people he surrounds himself with certainly are.

Yet, in Ireland, candidates presenting hard anti-immigrant views have been rejected by the Irish people.

It was also notable that Mick Wallace and Claire Daly, whose political views place them ever further to the left of the spectrum, both had dismal showings - in Wallace’s case in the fairly rural constituency of Wexford - with Daly alongside, and a long way behind, McDonald, Donohoe and Hutch in Dublin Central.

10. What can farmers expect?

Enough nerdy politics stuff, what can farmers expect as an outcome from this election. Firstly, everything currently points to another Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael joint administration.

It’s therefore likely that the government’s position on issues such as schemes, CAP, the nitrates derogation, farm transfer taxation and live exports won’t change much.

The tone of government may be determined by who the minor partners - the front wheel of the Robin Reliant that is Irish government - are.

If it’s Independent Ireland, the climate action plan may come under a bit of pressure, as might the Nature Restoration Law.

If it’s a left of centre party, either the Labour Party or the Social Democrats, the pressure on farmers to do more may increase.

Only 131 seats to go!