I was off this week, and so found myself reading the Journal with extra interest on Thursday, having not contributed to writing it.

One article in particular struck me. It related to the continuing drop in suckler cow numbers. It’s on page three, where Declan O’Brien recounts that in 2024, the number of cows in the suckler herd has declined by 46,500, a drop of over 5% compared to the same time last year.

The stark June 2024 figures came courtesy of the CSO and merely confirms what everyone feels; that the various measures being put in place are failing to arrest the continual decline in breeding from beef cows.

It’s been happening constantly for over a decade now, ever since the removal of dairy quotas. And certainly in the early years, it was true that there was a direct correlation between the expansion of the dairy herd and the contraction of the suckler herd.

Nitrates derogation

But hold on, the dairy herd also contracted in 2024. The reduction is less than in the suckler herd, “only” 22,000 cows, but that in itself is significant. It shows that the changes to the nitrates derogation in July 2023 had an instant effect.

This stands as concrete confirmation of the reality that the era of dairy expansion is over. It also shows an overall decline in cow numbers of 68,500. This correlates with a 2% drop in cattle numbers under two years old. Fewer cows, fewer calves.

But sheep have been flying over the last couple of years, so surely sheep numbers are buoyant, right? When I say flying, I mean figuratively, not literally, it’s hard enough to keep them in the field as it is. And not only figuratively, but relatively, as sheep farmer incomes remain a pale shadow of the national minimum wage. But still, markets have been good, and there has been some money made.

Unfortunately, the CSO figures show that the exodus from sheep is even faster than from sucklers. In 2024 the breeding flock declined by 12%, a staggering drop. In a single year, the ewe flock dropped from over 3m ewes, 3.05m to be precise, to 2.685m. What are we to make of this figure? Perhaps the buoyant markets of 2023 were a factor. Did farmers take advantage of the record prices for fat ewes to sell older breeding sheep for meat? It seems likely. But then why didn’t they replace them last year with hogget ewes?

Whatever the answer to that question, it wasn’t because farmers planted tillage crops in land that was being grazed by sheep. The tillage acreage declined in 2024, in part due to a difficult back end in 2023, followed by an awful spring.

By this time two years ago, the wonderful farming weather that had lasted pretty much all year was coming to an abrupt end. Conditions were not suitable for planting, and that continued right through the winter and into May. So, it’s not very surprising that the overall tillage hectarage has declined two years running. The CSO reckon the 2024 contraction has been in the order of 10,200 ha.

What’s going on?

However, that leaves us with a strange quandry. The main farming sectors in terms of land use all declined in the same year. Pigs and poultry are important sectors as regards economic output, as regards employment and feed consumption, but their only land requirement is for an apron to apply manure out onto. So if dairy, drystock and tillage are all shrinking at the same time, what is happening the land?

The obvious answer is that many dairy farmers are taking more land to keep the same amount of cows despite the change in the derogation. And that is undoubtedly a factor. But the derogation changes only occurred in mid-summer, way too late to affect breeding decisions for the spring dairy and suckler herds. All the relevant breeding decisions involved there were made in April-June 2023.

So, the decisions that determined the decline in cow numbers were largely unrelated to the bad outcome to the 2023 derogation review. It was something else that brought about reductions across the board in farming activity.

Many are continuing to occupy the land, as is their right, but are drastically reducing their farming activity.

The reality is that the declining demographic profile of farming output is directly linked to the declining demographic profile of farmers. The average Irish farmer is 58. Close to half the 125,000 Irish farmers are over 65, an age at which others retire. And tens of thousands of Irish farmers are over 70. Many of these are farming alone, with no identified successor. Some are selling up, and others are leasing or renting out their land. But the statistics quoted above point to a deeper truth.

Many are continuing to occupy the land, as is their right, but are drastically reducing their farming activity. Instead of a flock of ewes, they buy in store lambs to graze the land, with little labour requirement. Instead of calving down cows, they are buying weanlings or store cattle to graze the land. And they can do this and still fulfil the minimum requirements of farming that allow them to qualify for the various schemes, from BISS, CRISS and eco-schemes to ANC and even perhaps ACRES payments, as long as the actions don’t require too much from them.

It’s likely that such farmers, while they still had ewes, were part of the demographic that didn’t apply for the Sheep Improvement Scheme or the National Sheep Welfare Scheme.

Similarly, such older farmers were less likely to have applied for the Suckler Carbon Efficiency Programme even when they had suckler cows. It was more bother than it was worth, requiring hiring in help to carry out the required tasks such as weighing stock.

None of this is an implied criticism of these farmers, who have given 50 years to their farms and to food production. If they are getting a little back now, good luck to them. And there are parts of the country where leasing land long-term is not as easy as it once was, due to a decline in the numbers of younger farmers eager to expand. So it makes sense to farm it yourself, but in a laissez-faire, low-labour, low-management style.

Implications

But there are implications for farming and food production in Ireland. Unless the demographic structure of Irish farmers is urgently attended to, we are without doubt looking at the slow death of drystock farming, apart from the dairy beef herd.

Meanwhile, dairy dispersals are increasing. Many of these are farmers over 60, who milked cows right through the quota era, and have run out of energy. If they had a herd of over 100 cows, there might be interest in taking the farm on as a going concern, but many of these farms have less than 80 cows.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale, there is growing concern about some of the larger dairy operations, particularly those not underpinned by family labour or farm partnerships, but with hired help. This is even more true of multi-platform operations, where cows are being milked daily in a number of yards from a number of grazing blocs.

Labour is a huge challenge, and the ever-increasing minimum wage is a significant factor. Not because experienced operators on dairy farms are being paid minimum wage; they aren’t for the most part. It’s more that, with someone guaranteed €27,378 for a 39-hour week in any occupation, earning somewhere in the low to mid-€30,000s to milk cows and tend to a dairy herd, with unsociable hours and management skill requirements, is only likely to appeal to someone who wants to make a career for themselves as a dairy farmer in their own right.

Unless such pathways are developed, people will drain away from dairy farming to less onerous forms of work. Of course, there are people, whether born in Ireland or from the far end of the planet, who love the outdoor life and working with animals. But while dairy farming for yourself can be a wonderful experience for an entire family, working on a dairy farm with a small family shares all the disadvantages, and few or none of the advantages.

There are also implications for part-time farmers.

This is the cohort of farmers that is most challenged demographically. Farms are smaller, incomes are smaller, and off-farm work is an economic necessity. In many parts of the country, many of the local off-farm jobs are closely connected to farming. But with every farmer that essentially withdraws from significant economic activity, while still owning the land, another off-farm job in the upstream and downstream agri-food sectors disappears.

I am convinced that part-time farming is best suited to people who find off-farm work that is connected to farming.

Employers are more likely to be understanding around leave for calving or lambing, or taking a day to grab some silage. Working by day in an occupation that puts you in contact with farmers leaves you closer to what is happening on the farm, keeps you plugged in to the ever-changing dynamic around markets, schemes, opportunities and threats.

So the drop in farming activity could spark a chain reaction, where fewer agri-jobs means fewer younger part-time farmers, which means more minimum-activity farming, which sees farming output drop.

It was good to see recognition for forgotten farmers this week. Many have been waiting for some support since 2008, when Installation Aid and the Farm Retirement Scheme were summarily scrapped as the country’s finances imploded.

It’s estimated that 3,500 people fit the category of having missed out, being too old or too long-established as farmers in their own right when the vacuum was finally filled with new supports for younger farmers.

Older generation

I wouldn’t be surprised if many more potential young farmers were lost forever due to those barren years. I’m not suggesting that the lack of young farmer incentives were the sole reason, hundreds of thousands of young Irish people emigrated in search of employment.

Many have returned, but many haven’t. And some of them might be poised to take over farms, or to provide the help and support to keep the older generation farming more actively, if they were near home.

Unless we have a serious conversation about who is going to farm the land, calve the cows, lamb the ewes, and grow the crops, there is trouble ahead, and soon. We are on the edge of a demographic precipice; the CSO figures released this Wednesday are a clear sign of that. Unless better and more pathways for young farmers are created, the answer to the question of “who will farm the land” might be “no one”.

Some people might see this as a win for nature and biodiversity, but I am not sure that land abandonment is the right kind of stewardship for the countryside. And as this is a Europe-wide phenomenon, and indeed a global one, the implications for food production and availability are significant. From an environmental welfare perspective, it might mean more pressure on the land still in more intensive production.

It's never simple, and it’s never easy. But we must keep trying to build a sustainable future, with young farmers at the heart of it.