This is a subscriber-only article
Future oilseed rape markets have been holding steady over the past month after a period of steady gains.
Prices have remained steady on the back of a number of bullish stories both at home and abroad.
Currently, 2018 November futures stand at €372.5/t, up over €10/t since August 31. See Figure 1.
EU anti-subsidy duties
The EU is proposing restoring anti-subsidy duties on Argentinian biodiesel imports due to increased shipments of low-cost biodiesel from South America, which has proved challenging for the EU biodiesel industry (Source: Reuters).
While these anti-subsidies are, for now, just a proposal, developments will be monitored closely, as this could have a big effect on the direction of the EU rapeseed market.
A decline in biodiesel imports could lead to increased demand for EU rapeseed in biodiesel production.
Canada yields fall
As reported on throughout the year, adverse weather early in the season and during harvest, coupled with a reduced crop area, has significantly affected production this year.
Final production figures for Canadian canola (oilseed rape) has been estimated at 20.3Mt by Statistics Canada.
This is a reduction from the record 21.3Mt harvested in 2017.
Average yields are estimated at 2.2t/ha in 2018, a decline of 3% from 2017 (AHDB).
39% fall in Australian rapeseed production
Oilseed rape production in Australia is forecast to fall by 39% year-on-year to 2.2Mt.
Australia is a major player in the global oilseed market.
On average over the past five seasons, Australian canola has accounted for around 17% of global production.
In addition to this, the USDA last month forecast Australian canola exports to reach 2.2Mt this season.
However, if Australian production only reaches 2.2Mt, then exports would likely be lower than the current USDA forecast (AHDB).
As a result, this will support the global rapeseed markets.
SHARING OPTIONS: