Grain Trends: little to move wheat and maize markets

Oilseed rape prices improved this week and soya bean markets continued to draw attention, but wheat prices stayed at their recent level in Europe.

Matif wheat for December 2023 closed on Tuesday evening at €231.75/t and the December 2024 price finished at €239.50/t. They’ve been in the same region since the end of October.

In the UK, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB) early bird planting survey reports a decline in winter wheat, barley and oilseed rape area. This will lead to a significant increase in spring cropping, similar to here in Ireland.

WASDE

The United States Department of Agriculture released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report last week.

It estimated US maize production up by 170 million bushels. Global coarse grain production (maize and barley) was forecast up 5m tonnes.

The outlook wasn’t positive on wheat: “The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, fractionally lower consumption, less trade and larger ending stocks.”

As maize supplies look high, they are likely to keep a cap on wheat and barley prices.

US maize and soya bean prices dropped following the report’s release, but had recovered and increased slightly by Tuesday. Maize prices into Ireland remained steady this week at €230/t for new crop.

Soya beans

Soya beans into Ireland this week are reported to be heading for €610/t. Chicago Board of Trade soya bean prices took a slight jump on Monday, but were down again on Tuesday.

Soya beans continue to be a watch point and weather in Brazil is still a concern. Dry weather is reported to be continuing to delay planting by as much as a month with some sown crops struggling.

However, Reuters reported that Conab, a Brazilian crop agency, was forecasting a soya bean crop of 162.42m tonnes in 2023/2024.

This is 400,000t higher than its October forecast and is up from 154.6m tonnes last season.

Oilseed rape

Oilseed rape prices were looking up this week, with support from the soya bean market.

Matif oilseed rape for August 2024 closed last week at €439.25/t, over €10/t behind the previous week’s close of €449.75/t.

However, by Tuesday evening that price was at €451/t. It hasn’t been as high as this price since 19 October.

Native prices

At home, February prices for native wheat and barley are reported to be around €235/t and €225/t respectively, with nearby prices lower than this.